Leading German bank Commerzbank has predicted a bright future for offshore wind energy and has forecast an average growth rate of 15% over the next 10 years
That rate of growth would see annual offshore wind capacity installations increase from around 4.3 GW currently to 19.1 GW per annum.
Commerzbank said it sees significant potential in the newly developing offshore wind market in the US and is also optimistic about Asia – particularly South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
The company made its assessment of market potential at the Husum wind industry event in Germany.
On the German market, the bank said, “If we want to achieve our CO2 emission reduction targets, we have to significantly expand wind energy in Germany. At the same time, all market participants need to establish an international footprint, in order to tap into new markets and increase cost efficiency.”
The bank was less optimistic although not unoptimistic about onshore wind growth, noting that the global wind market continues to grow, albeit with significant regional fluctuations.
Commerzbank anticipates annual global growth for the onshore sector to increase to 68 GW by 2020, from 46 GW in 2018. Annual growth forecasts for the years 2021 to 2028 vary between 57 GW and 63 GW per annum. This uncertainty is primarily due to regulatory changes, such as the end of state subsidies in the US and China as of 2021.
Commerzbank noted that, in Germany, ongoing adjustments being made to the legal framework for tenders (first introduced in 2017 through the Renewable Energy Sources Act) have led to distortions in installation volumes over the last few years.
In addition, it said, permits are “increasingly delayed due to a large number of applications and an increasing number of appeals and legal complaints.”