Delegates at the 2021 Offshore Wind Journal Conference in London on 16 November 2021 were told that huge numbers of vessels will need to be built in the coming years, with demand ramping up in the mid-2020s for some vessels and again towards the end of the decade for others
Particularly striking was an assertion by Maritime Strategies International (MSI) associate director Ferenc Pasztor that, worldwide, as many as 600 service operation vessels (SOVs) could be needed by 2050 to support operation and maintenance of offshore windfarms.
Mr Pasztor told the conference that MSI anticipates there will be an inflection point later this decade as offshore wind continues to expand globally and as more and more in-service windfarms require the use of SOVs.
"In 2028/2029 vessel demand will increase very significantly, with a focus on SOVs," Mr Pasztor told delegates, noting that developers and wind turbine OEMs prefer the use of purpose-designed and built vessels.
Overall, MSI anticipates that as many as 1,200 offshore wind vessels of all types will need to be constructed by 2050, not including cable-layers, for which there is also expected to be significant additional demand.
Fearnley Offshore Supply market analyst Jesper Skjong told delegates there would be what he described as "tremendous demand for vessels," and that more than 50 SOVs would be required by 2030, of which around 32 would be required in Europe and at least 17 in Asia. Others will be required in due course in the US market.
Demand for specific SOV types, such as commissioning service operation vessels, would also be high he predicted, although he cautioned that finance for some vessel types might be hard to come by because traditional shipping banks had been scarred by their exposure to the offshore vessel market in the oil and gas sector, in which overbuilding contributed to a severe downturn.
Mr Skjong also highlighted a potential supply crunch in the wind turbine installation vessel market. He said there was a "clear issue" and would be a "clear shortage" of vessels later this decade that will be capable of handling 14 MW+ offshore wind turbines. "It is one thing to upgrade the crane on an existing vessel," he said, "but there remains a questionmark about free deck space, and whether vessels upgraded with a new crane will have deck space enough for larger turbine components."
Mr Skjong said that, at the moment, "hardly any vessels can do 14 MW+ turbines" and questioned whether upgraded vessels would be sufficiently efficient.
Mr Skjong further suggested that new concepts would be required to make foundation installation vessels more efficient. Without more vessels such as Seaway 7’s foundation installation vessel Alfa Lift, which is due to install the foundations for the massive Dogger Bank offshore windfarms in the North Sea, the efficiency with which larger, new-generation foundations are installed would be constrained.
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