Asia Pacific seeks fair winds to fan offshore energy ambitions

Japan has been building up its offshore wind expertise through projects located in ports, such as the 238 MW Hibikinada project. Whilst we expect Japan to fall short of having 10 GW installed by 2030, we do expect it to have over 10 GW of projects tendered and awarded, giving it a healthy pipeline of projects.

South Korea renewed its bidding roadmap for 2024-2026 as it targets 14.3 GW by 2030, up from 200 MW as of mid-2024. The new roadmap intends to increase offtake tendering from 1.5 GW per year to around 2.5 GW per year. Starting in October 2024, 7-8 GW of capacity will be on offer until Q2 2026, and with a four-to-five-year period typically expected between awards to FID and construction, we could see 7-8 GW enter the construction phase by 2030.

“Vietnam has had a troubled start to its offshore wind sector”

Just over 100 floating wind turbines are forecast to be installed in Japan and South Korea in 2030, linked to the Sakura and Kishuu projects in Japan and the Firefly and Gray Whale projects in South Korea.

In countries such as Australia, obtaining EIA approval may prove more difficult and requirements for port and grid development, as well as the establishment of a supply chain, could see projects delayed. Australia has seen recent success, awarding feasibility licenses for 12 projects in May 2024; the projects have a combined 25 GW of capacity potential.

Vessel demand

As projects advance, vessel demand in the region is also forecast to see substantial growth over MSI’s forecast period. Commissioning service operation vessel (CSOV) and service operation vessel (SOV) demand is expected to see the most dramatic rise, increasing from less than five vessels in 2024 to over 55 vessels by 2035, driven by a substantial number of new turbines being installed that will require repairs and maintenance.

Some of this work will be able to be carried out by platform supply vessels (PSV) and anchor-handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels; however, as seen with more advanced offshore wind markets in Europe and China, specialised vessels will be required to sustain long-term growth. MSI expects to see newbuilding orders for CSOVs and SOVs or OSV conversions happening within the coming years to support the region with its offshore wind growth.

Crew transfer vessel (CTV) demand is due to increase in hand with turbine installations, increasing from about 40 vessels in 2024 to just under 160 by 2035. CTVs are cheaper, at around US$5M, and quicker to build than CSOVs or SOVs, so owners can increase supply faster. Several CTV designs are being developed in Asia at this moment in time, with a focus on ride comfort and safety as well as increased deck space to carry supplies. This will broaden the capabilities of CTVs to support projects further from shore.

Wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV) demand will grow to a lesser extent, due to their nature of work, moving from project to project as they complete installations. WTIV demand is forecast to increase fourfold by 2030 (11 vessels) and sixfold by 2035 (15 vessels), up from three vessels currently.