Capesize bulls return as Brazil and Guinea drive market to 2025 highs

On 24 July, the Baltic Capesize Index surged to its highest level of the year, with average daily spot rates climbing to US$31,429 – a rise of almost 14% from the previous day. This surpasses the previous 2025 high of US$30,944 per day recorded on 16 July.

Adding to the market’s momentum is strength in the period market. BRS Shipbrokers head of dry bulk research Wilson Wirawan told Riviera there is significant interest in longer-term charters. He cited a recently reported three-year fixture concluded at US$30,000 per day as evidence of bullish sentiment.

According to European shipbroking reports, the estimated rate for a three-year Capesize charter stood at US$21,500 per day as of 18 July.

Brazil and Guinea drive demand

Mr Wirawan noted a substantial bounce in Capesize shipments from Brazil and Guinea over the past two weeks, contributing to greater fronthaul cargo availability and boosting market activity. Guinean bauxite has been a steady contributor to market strength in 2025.

Furthermore, a spike in fixtures – particularly on the Brazil-to-China route – has tightened vessel supply and lifted market confidence. Signal Ocean highlighted Vale’s Q2 production report as a key factor in supporting this trend. The Brazilian mining giant reported Q2 iron ore output of 84M tonnes, marking a 4% year-on-year increase.

“With production ramping up and iron ore flows increasing, we are likely to see continued upward pressure on the C3 route (Tubarão to Qingdao) in the coming weeks,” Signal Ocean noted, citing tightening vessel availability and rising cargo volumes as supportive factors.

Mr Wirawan also pointed to a sharp rise in iron ore prices, with September futures on the Dalian Exchange reaching US$112.74 per tonne as of 21 July – the highest since February. He attributed the surge partly to the recent launch of a US$167Bn mega hydropower project in Tibet, which includes five cascade dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo River.

Positive sentiment across both basins

According to Mr Wirawan, the North Atlantic remained tight, driven by strong fronthaul demand that further constrained vessel supply. “After a brief midweek pause caused by a buildup of tonnage and limited fresh cargo in certain areas, optimism returned as tonnage availability tightened once more – particularly in the Atlantic,” he noted.

He added, “Increased activity across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins is underpinning the firm market sentiment.”