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Capesize earnings hit two-year high
Dry bulk freight edged higher, as Capesize strength offset softer Kamsarmax returns against mixed trade signals and restrained newbuilding and recycling activity
Capesize strength carried dry bulk earnings to their highest level in two years over the past week, even as smaller segments lost some momentum.
Clarksons reported overall average bulker earnings rose 1% week-on-week to $19,531 per day, “a fresh two-year high,” supported by another strong week in the largest size class.
The Baltic Dry Index peaked at 2,845 points on 3 December before easing to 2,814 points on 4 December.
In the Capesize market, Clarksons described “another strong week in the Capesize sector overall, underpinned by a tightening market in the Pacific.”
A fleet-weighted average of Capesize earnings closed the week at US$34,425 per day, which Clarksons said was “a two-year high and now stand around double the 2024 average.”
By contrast, the Kamsarmax trip charter average slipped to US$16,990 per day, which Clarksons characterised as “a second successive week of week-on-week declines,” while the Supramax trip charter average rose to US$19,375 per day.
Underlying trade flows remained closely linked to iron ore and grains.
Signal Ocean analysis noted, “C5 assessments have climbed back to the peak levels last seen in Q4 2023, the highest in nearly a year,” with Western Australia’s iron ore shipments to China absorbing tonnage as ballaster numbers fell from roughly 180 vessels in early October to around 160 by late November.
The same report highlighted Port Hedland’s Capesize iron ore exports to China exceeded 33M tonnes in November, representing more than 60% of Western Australia’s exports on this route.
On the demand side, Commodore Research pointed to a softer Chinese household backdrop, noting, “China’s retail sales in October grew year-on-year by 2.9%,” with inflation at 0.2%, leaving real consumption growth at 2.7% and “the lowest growth seen since August 2024.”
Greece-based Doric Shipbrokers, in its Weekly Market Insight argued, “The global economy has once again demonstrated an impressive degree of resilience,” and concluded, “Global growth has evolved more steadily than earlier anticipated, lending firmer support to dry bulk sentiment as the industry heads into the new year.”
In the grain trades, Signal Group’s Weekly Dry Market Monitor described Egypt as the top destination for Russian wheat and reported, “Egypt’s near-doubling of Russian wheat imports in November is consistent with the country’s renewed buying spree,” citing a roughly 500,000-tonne purchase of Black Sea wheat by state buyer Mostakbal Misr for December–January delivery.
Fleet fundamentals showed more restraint.
Clarksons’ newbuilding statistics indicated 303 bulk carrier orders placed year to date, down about 58% from the 2024 total, while BRL Shipping’s latest newbuild report recorded no new bulk carrier contracts signed in the past week.
Clarksons also highlighted “continued subdued activity in the ship recycling sector.”
Sale and purchase activity remained more active, with Clarksons reporting, for example, the sale of the 2012-built Kamsarmax Key Frontier for US$18.7M and several older Handysize units changing hands for US$10.5M–14.4M.
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