Capesize values hit highest level since 2008 amid slower S&P activity

Veson Nautical senior content analyst Rebecca Galanopoulos noted in a recent report that prices for five-year-old, 180,000-dwt Capesize bulk carriers have rallied sharply in 2025, rising 23% since the start of the year – from US$55M to US$68M – the strongest levels since October 2008.

According to Allied Shipbroking data, Capesize values have increased by up to 11% over the past six months, with the exception of 15-year-old vessels.

Ms Galanopoulos added that one-year time charter daily earnings began the year at US$17,432 and reached US$23,067 by mid-October, marking a 33% increase.

“Global trade flows have adjusted to new geopolitical developments over the past week, with Red Sea diversions continuing to influence vessel demand patterns. Against this backdrop, time charter earnings reached their highest levels since October 2024, led by Capesize rates, while smaller segments lagged,” she explained.

Looking ahead, Ms Galanopoulos highlighted Chinese port fee adjustments as a factor reshaping routeing economics. “Higher charges at major discharge ports could divert additional tonnage away from traditional Chinese hubs, creating secondary effects across regional utilisation patterns,” she said.

On the demand side, Veson Nautical points to Guinea bauxite shipments, which are increasingly replacing coal on Capesize vessels, with more coal now moving via Panamaxes. “This cargo reshuffling is generating ripple effects across the entire bulker spectrum,” Ms Galanopoulos noted.

Slowing activity, Chinese owners lead

These upward movements in vessel values have coincided with a slowdown in sale and purchase (S&P) activity. Veson Nautical data show deals are down 27% year-on-year, with 104 reported sales from January to September 2025, compared with 142 during the same period last year.

“With asset values at multi-year highs but deal flow retreating, it suggests potential buyers are either waiting for a correction or reassessing the risk-reward at current price levels,” Ms Galanopoulos said.

Transaction activity peaked in February, with 22 sales recorded – the busiest month of the year – although the market has maintained a steady flow of deals since then. Vessels sold have averaged 14 years of age, indicating a continued appetite for mid-age tonnage.

Chinese owners remain the most active buyers, accounting for just over a quarter of purchases this year, at approximately 26%.