DNV outlines tanker market risks for 2026

On the tanker demand side, DNV emphasised crude and refined products consumption as the stabilising element, alongside low oil prices “stemming from the production oversupply”. The outlook singled out China as the “main driving force”, stating the country added more than 1.0M barrels per day (b/d) of new refinery capacity since 2020, with a further 1.3–1.5M b/d expected online before the end of the decade. DNV tanker market specialist and business development manager, Nicolai Hansteen, said, “Most of China’s imports arrive via seaborne trade, reinforcing the critical role of tankers in global energy logistics.” He added that India is expanding its import footprint, which DNV linked to strengthened tonne-mile demand and high utilisation across the fleet, even as longer-term decarbonisation pressures gathered.

That combination of utilisation, distance and fleet renewal fed into DNV’s view of newbuilding behaviour. The outlook noted that ordering rose sharply during 2024, when newbuild orders reached around 33M gross tonnes (gt), then moderated to around 20M gt in 2025. Even with the slower pace, DNV argues that tight supply and elevated freight rates pushed the market towards another ordering phase.

Mr Hansteen said, “While there are a number of factors at play, the next newbuild cycle will likely be driven by an acute need for more capacity on the market,” and he noted, “The current orderbook stands at about 17% of the fleet.”

It will be a challenge for the current orderbook to offset ageing tonnage, particularly in larger crude oil tanker segments.

“The lack of oversight in this segment is troubling”

DNV also signalled that shipyard conditions mattered, but did not present them as a decisive constraint for 2026. It noted that newbuild prices remain elevated, though they had softened somewhat, and improving yard slot availability in Asia, particularly China, supports continued ordering activity through 2026 and beyond. The DNV outlook tied the longer-run ordering case to sustained freight strength, while acknowledging the tension between high asset prices and the investment case for renewal.

Where decarbonisation enters the outlook, DNV described an industry preference for measures with clear payback and limited operational disruption. It said owners are taking a pragmatic approach to newbuilds, with proven energy-efficiency steps favoured over alternative fuels that carry high upfront costs and uncertain returns. Ms Vestereng said, “Right now, the priority is on technologies that reduce fuel consumption and emissions without disrupting operational flexibility.” That preference translates into incremental design and equipment choices that reduce consumption and port emissions, while more complex options remain less common where payback periods are long or operational complexity increases.

DNV linked efficiency choices directly to charterer behaviour and age thresholds. It wrote that charterers traditionally capped age at 20 years old, but supply constraints pushed limits to 25 years old in some trades. Ms Vestereng said, “Oil majors remain the most restrictive, with rigorous vetting, while traders are more lenient,” indicating that the market’s acceptance of older tonnage varies by charterer type and cargo sensitivity.

The age profile itself was a recurring constraint in DNV’s outlook. DNV stated that at the end of 2025, 23% of all tankers were over 20 years old and 45% were 15 years old or older, compared with 36% a decade earlier. In the crude segment, DNV noted that 40% of VLCCs and Suezmax tankers were older than 15 years, while the ratio in Aframax tankers was over 45%. The same section connected age to commercial exposure, with older ships facing higher operating costs and emissions challenges, shaping chartering decisions and renewal pressure as market conditions shifted.

DNV separated the mainstream fleet from what it called “the sanctioned fleet”, arguing that the latter introduces an additional safety and environmental risk layer. The outlook said the sanctioned fleet’s rise remains a major concern for regulators and industry stakeholders, describing vessels “mainly operated out of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela” as operating outside normal compliance frameworks and, in some cases, without proper insurance or monitoring. It added that many were well beyond 20 years old, raising concerns over structural integrity and operational reliability.

Ms Vestereng said, “The lack of oversight in this segment is troubling,” and added, “We’re talking about vessels that fall outside normal class, statutory and vetting inspection, with minimal maintenance and no insurance if something goes wrong.” She also said this is “particularly concerning for the crew on board these vessels who may not be aware of the safety risks they are exposed to.”

Overall, DNV positioned 2026 as a year of simultaneous opportunity and constraint, shaped by high utilisation, shifting trades and a fleet renewal problem that could not be deferred indefinitely. Ms Vestereng said, “The fundamentals are strong, but this is not a market for complacency,” adding, “Owners and operators must navigate a fine balance between capitalising on today’s opportunities and preparing for tomorrow’s regulatory and geopolitical challenges.”

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