A review of the most important stories to have emerged in the offshore wind industry in 2024
Replacing Russian gas with Chinese wind turbines: the challenge faced by Europe’s energy sector
Europe has set ambitious goals for offshore wind, very ambitious goals, but some well-known wind turbine OEMs on the Continent have been struggling. Other suppliers to Europe are back-pedalling on the offshore wind market, awaiting a solution to supply chain issues and lower interest rates. Enter Mingyang Smart Energy, and other Chinese OEMs with a near-continuous raft of announcements in 2024 about larger and larger wind turbines. Factor in news about the selection of Chinese wind turbines for high profile projects in Germany and Italy – and, potentially, Chinese manufacturing in Europe – and alarm bells should be ringing, say some observers of the market.
Or should they? And how likely is it Chinese manufacturers will gain a significant share of the market in Europe, as they did to such devastating effect in the solar power market? If they do, how long might that take and are Chinese turbines really less expensive than European ones in the long run, when insurance, financing and O&M costs are taken into consideration? The jury is still out. Trade measures might yet be needed in response to Chinese penetration of the European offshore wind market, but Europe can protect its supply chain from unfair competition by creating the conditions for domestic investment by its own manufacturers.
Offshore wind industry responds to Trump election victory
That Donald Trump would once again become President of the US is probably the last thing developers wanted to hear. The President Elect is no fan of wind energy, and has promised to halt the industry in the US. The President Elect says a lot of things, not all of which come to pass, but the result of the US election in November was undoubtedly disheartening for the fast-growing sector. A lot of jobs and economic development would be lost if Trump does ‘halt’ the industry. But will he? And as he goes about reining in the industry, what levers might he use to do so?
The Trump administration could cancel federal plans for lease auctions. The new President could issue an Executive Order to halt specific projects or a create a moratorium on offshore wind development in specific areas or target the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides tax incentives for renewable energy projects. But it would take extraordinary action to halt projects that are already under construction.
Taking a more optimistic view, it is important not to forget the President Elect was vocally anti-offshore wind during his first administration, but during that administration, thousands of new offshore wind jobs were created and US$40Bn invested, including US$24Bn in direct investment in manufacturing, vessel-building and shipyard upgrades, port infrastructure, transmission planning, and workforce development across 39 red and blue states.
Developers dismayed by Sweden’s bombshell decision
Developers who had been hoping to build offshore windfarms in the Baltic to help meet Sweden’s growing need for green energy responded with dismay to the Swedish government’s November 2024 decision to halt 13 projects.
Responding to the announcement, Svensk Vindenergi, the Swedish Wind Energy Association, said the decision was “surprising and problematic” and questioned why the government had categorically closed an entire area to potential electricity production “without a proper assessment.” The projects that were rejected amount to around 30 GW of installed power, or about 140 terawatt hours of annual electricity production. By way of comparison, Sweden today uses approximately 130 TWh of electricity annually.
They were rejected because the Swedish Ministry of Defence said they would potentially interfere with the defence of country. It claims there are "no technical solutions that can compensate for the problem," although other countries are already working on technical solutions to similar problems.
WindEurope said the Swedish government’s decision is "highly problematic" and undermines investor trust. It said it “puts Sweden’s industrial competitiveness at risk and is a serious blow to Sweden’s wider energy security targets.” The Swedish military says it is sticking to its guns and won’t change course, even as other countries in the Baltic press ahead with projects.
French auction kick-starts floating wind’s commercial journey
Higher inflation and interest rates have not helped the offshore wind industry’s journey from fixed-bottom to floating offshore windfarms. More costly for now than fixed turbines, floaters are on the verge of commercialisation. The rate at which the technology is adopted is expected to be slower than anticipated because of increased costs, but the outcome of France’s first commercial-scale floating wind tender was seen by some as a big step forward for floating wind, particularly in southern Europe. Others are less sure.
In May 2024, a consortium between Elicio and BayWa r.e – the Pennavel consortium – won the AO5 tender for 250 MW of floating wind capacity with a winning bid that came in at €86/MWh (US$94/MWh), a record-low for floating offshore wind. Price was the critical factor, but analysis by Wood MacKenzie suggests another bidder may have bid even lower than Pennavel, before forfeiting its bid.
France’s Energy Regulatory Commission reportedly believed the two lowest bids, including Pennavel’s, to be ‘optimistic’ and questioned their deliverability. It also recommended that future tenders should pay more attention to the robustness of bids, so it remains an open question whether the AO5 result and the price achieved is feasible and deliverable, and whether it really is a new benchmark for floating wind in Europe.
Offshore charging tech ‘ready for commercialisation’
Green technology for vessels that work in offshore windfarms is racing ahead and windfarm developers are ready to adopt offshore charging systems on new projects, with the first orders expected in 2025 or sooner, delegates at a Riviera webinar held towards the end of 2024 heard.
Attendees learned that several offshore charging systems designed to recharge batteries on vessels while they are at sea were successfully tested over the course of 2024, and that, when commercialised, they will play a major role decarbonising vessel operations, helping to reduce capex and enabling hybrid vessels to provide a major step towards fully electric operations. Other applications in the shipping industry are also becoming apparent, such as in the tug sector.
Some challenges remain, including bringing the cost of the technology down and driving standardisation, and work is also needed on regulation for offshore charging systems and to incentivise uptake, but all of the participants agreed the market is developing quickly. They said leading developers of offshore windfarms with whom they have discussed the technology have expressed an interest in incorporating offshore charging systems into future windfarms. Initial orders are around the corner, delegates heard, and partnerships between OEMs, developers and vessel owners will play an important role in speeding the introduction of the technology.
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