Analysis published in Nature Energy on 15 April 2020 suggests future onshore and offshore wind costs will decline by 37-49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than those predicted in 2015
The paper in Nature Energy was authored by wind energy experts at Berkeley Lab, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and International Energy Agency.
As highlighted on many occasions by OWJ, cost reduction in wind energy has accelerated significantly in recent years, at a far greater rate than predicted.
In the paper, the wind energy experts report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions.
They show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37-49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements.
“If realised,” they report, “these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated.”
However, considering both surveys, the authors of the paper also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs.
“Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation,” they said.