Floating Energy Forum to examine FPSO and FLNG opportunities

In the opening session, panellists highlighted how economics, fabrication schedules, long lead times and contracting strategy would determine which floating production projects move ahead over the rest of the decade.

EMA director David Boggs set the market context with an overview of offshore wind, floating production and FLNG. He said EMA’s offshore wind forecast, excluding China, already assumes significant slippage and cancellation of planned projects, and compared current hype to the early, over-optimistic phase of FLNG.

“It will come back down to economics,” he said, adding vessels and subsea assets are already moving back from delayed wind schemes into hydrocarbon work.

On floating production, Mr Boggs highlighted a structural shift towards gas units and very large FPSOs.

He noted only four FPSOs have been awarded in each of the past two years, yet capital costs per unit had risen into the US$1Bn–$4Bn range as projects grew in scale and complexity.

"Traditional tender processes are leaving value on the table"

EMA’s forecast suggested a pick-up to roughly nine to 11 FPSO awards a year in its mid case, with Brazil dominant and South America excluding Brazil in second place, followed by a recovery in African activity.

He warned that contracting strategy in the early stages often determined whether projects progressed at all, citing cases where failed tender models forced operators to restart processes and lose years.

The discussion also examined gas markets and risk.

Mr Boggs said FLNG orders have reached all-time highs as long-mooted projects finally move to sanction, helped by post-Ukraine gas demand and power requirements linked to data centres.

By contrast, he described earlier FSRU oversupply as a product of speculative ordering and cheap finance, with most idle units subsequently absorbed by European demand.

FLNG and FSRU assets, he argued, could be redeployed more readily than bespoke FPSOs because they handle standardised gas streams.

MODEC director of business development Boyd Howell set out the contractor’s decarbonisation roadmap for FPSOs.

He said MODEC has progressed from a 2015–2017 “generation zero” baseline to designs capable of about 30% emissions reduction, mainly through combined-cycle gas turbine power, closed flaring, improved equipment selection and tighter control of fugitive emissions and tank venting.

"Half of respondents predicted FPSOs would form the largest market for new offshore energy projects in the 2030s"

Further reductions would be “harder to achieve” and would depend on technologies such as fuel cells, which MODEC is now pursuing with partners.

Mr Howell also described a floating storage and injection unit concept for liquid CO2, transferring cargoes from shuttle carriers and injecting them into depleted reservoirs, for which MODEC has received approval in principle from ABS and Bureau Veritas.

From the contractor perspective, NOV senior vice president Cobie Loper argued traditional tender processes are leaving value on the table.

He contrasted “three bids and a buy” procurement with an influence curve in which concept and pre-FEED engagement allows suppliers to optimise layouts, reduce interfaces and embed digital monitoring in critical systems.

NOV’s portfolio, he said, extends from flexible pipe and turret moorings through topside processing to offloading systems, supported by a 61-country aftermarket footprint.

In live polls during the session, a clear majority of respondents selected “extended fabrication schedules pushing costs beyond sanction estimates” as the factor most likely to influence FPSO project economics through 2030, far ahead of unproven decarbonisation technologies, labour shortages or carbon pricing.

In a separate question, almost two-thirds said “early conceptual design partnership” is the engagement model most likely to deliver optimal project outcomes, reinforcing the panel’s repeated calls for earlier and deeper collaboration between operators, contractors and equipment suppliers.

In a closing poll, just under half of respondents predicted FPSOs would form the largest market for new offshore energy projects in the 2030s, ahead of FLNG and floating wind, with fixed offshore wind attracting negligible support.

Across the series and at the Forum itself, Riviera and EMA intend to use these insights to explore how floating hydrocarbon solutions can unlock stranded reserves, deliver competitive costs and support lower-impact developments in remote regions.

From L-R: David Boggs (EMS), Cobie Loper (NOV), Boyd Howell (MODEC)