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Geopolitics, fundamentals dampen BIMCO's product tanker outlook
Geopolitics again took centre stage in BIMCO’s latest Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, which signalled a diverging trajectory for crude and product tankers
In BIMCO’s latest Tanker Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, its chief shipping analyst, Niels Rasmussen, said the crude market appears broadly balanced next year, but warns of a shift as the orderbook arrives.
“We forecast balanced supply and demand growth for the crude tanker market in 2026 but a weakening in 2027 as ship deliveries increase,” he said.
“Unfortunately, the product tanker market is expected to continue to weaken during both years as ship deliveries hit 15-year highs and supply therefore outpaces demand,” said Mr Rasmussen.
Crude tanker demand growth was forecast at 1–2% in 2026 and 0–1% in 2027, against supply growth of 1-2% and 3-4% respectively.
In the product segment, BIMCO projected supply growth of 5-6% in both 2026 and 2027, while demand was estimated at around 1-2%, pointing to progressively softer fundamentals for clean tonnage.
Oil market dynamics reinforced that picture, “According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil oversupply could average 4.1M barrels per day in 2026. We expect that inventory building will continue in 2026 and support crude tanker demand, but we foresee that may end in 2027,” said Mr Rasmussen.
The IEA expects oil demand and refinery throughput to continue to grow in emerging and developing economies in Asia and Africa, while developing economies elsewhere are set to see lower refinery throughput and only very minor demand growth.
Geopolitical risk remains a key swing factor.
The Houthis have confirmed an end to attacks on ships in the Red Sea as the Gaza ceasefire holds, but BIMCO noted this has not yet produced a significant increase in tanker transits through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
Should routeings fully normalise, the analysts forecast a 2–3% reduction in demand compared with their current projections, as voyage distances fall.
At the same time, new US, UK and EU sanctions, combined with US pressure on buyers, could reduce Russian oil exports.
BIMCO had already observed a 20% reduction in crude tanker loadings, while product tankers appeared unimpacted.
Russian oil in floating storage has tripled, indicating possible difficulty in placing volumes. However, given Russia’s track record in evading sanctions, BIMCO has not yet adjusted its baseline forecast and expects any reduction in Russian exports to cut demand for sanctioned tonnage while supporting demand for mainstream ships as importers turn to alternative suppliers.
“Despite an expected weakening of market conditions in 2027, crude tankers are overall forecast to fare better than product tankers during 2026 and 2027.”
“Mainstream crude tankers could see further support if Russian exports suffer due to sanctions. On the other hand, both sectors could see slower demand if Red Sea routeings normalise,” said Mr Rasmussen.
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