Tanker and bulker challenges slow maritime trade despite box shipping gains

Shipbroker Clarksons Research, in its half-year review, noted separating the constant stream of headline news from shipping realities has been a challenge. Analysts observed only 4% of global trade has been newly affected by tariffs, and around 90% of seaborne trade does not involve the US. These figures suggest the direct impact of tariffs on trade is limited, although ongoing geopolitical discussions continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Meanwhile, headline-grabbing developments such as Red Sea transits and Russian oil flows have largely remained in line with 2024 levels.

Clarksons estimates global trade volumes contracted by 0.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. For the full year, trade is expected to post marginal growth of 0.1%, reaching 12.7Bn tonnes.

This subdued outlook comes despite a notable growth in the container shipping sector, where volumes rose 4% year-on-year. However, Clarksons cautioned that periods of ’frontloading’ and ’pauses’ – especially on the Transpacific route – make the second-half outlook uncertain.

Container vessel charter rates have surged, now standing 80% higher than the same period in 2024 and significantly above the 10-year average. “The market brushed off tariff fears and fleet growth to maintain last year’s gains,” Clarksons noted.

Challenges drag tanker and bulk carrier markets

In contrast, oil trade growth has stagnated. Factors cited include sanctions causing trade disruptions, limited demand growth from China, generally sluggish global oil demand, and weak refinery margins.

Average tanker earnings in the first half of the year fell to US$29,692 per day – a 33% decline compared with the same period in 2024 – although still 23% above the 10-year average. A notable development was a temporary spike in VLCC earnings, which hit a two-year high of US$70,000 per day in June due to the Israel-Iran conflict. Rates later normalised as geopolitical tensions eased.

The market is now turning its attention to the potential upside from the accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts in the second half of the year.

In the dry bulk sector, trade volumes declined by 1% in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period last year. The exception was bauxite exports from Guinea, which have provided some support to Capesize demand.

Bulk carrier earnings fell 31%, averaging US$10,897 per day, and remained 18% below the 10-year trend. Weak Chinese demand, amid softer fundamentals for raw materials and elevated stockpiles, has also weighed heavily on the market.

Shifts in the gas carrier markets

In the gas carrier market, LNG trade grew 3% year-on-year. However, earnings have been weak. Spot rates for a 174,000-m³ LNG carrier averaged US$24,606 per day in the first half of 2025 – down 56% from the same period in 2024. Clarksons attributed the decline to strong newbuilding deliveries, delays in project start-ups, and a shift away from longhaul routes as more US LNG was sent to Europe rather than Asia.

In the LPG segment, trade grew by 2% year-on-year, but very large gas carrier rates softened. The benchmark Middle East Gulf–Japan route saw a 22% decline compared with H1 2024. Clarksons attributed the downward trend primarily to increased Panama Canal transits compared with early 2024, along with US exports being limited by capacity constraints.