Global wind power capacity additions are expected to average 77 GW per annum from 2020 to 2029, according to Wood Mackenzie
This represents growth of 112% in global installed capacity from the end of 2019 to the end of 2029.
As noted in Wood Mackenzie’s report, Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q1 2020, 62 GW of wind capacity was added globally in 2019, which is a 23% increase from 2018 and the second-highest annual total after 2015 (63 GW).
Wood Mackenzie research director Luke Lewandowski said, “A policy-induced build frenzy in China and the US largely drove an 11.5 GW uptick in 2019 global net capacity additions when compared with 2018.
“Significant contributions also came from Argentina (676 MW year on year), Mexico (883 MW), Sweden (720 MW) and Spain (1.9 GW).”
Although the story in 2019 was a positive one, 2020 will not be so fortunate, Wood Mackenzie said. The coronavirus is likely to affect the 150 GW bulge in global wind capacity additions expected from 2020 to 2021.
Mr Lewandowski said, “The impact from the coronavirus is expected to exacerbate an already pressure-filled 27.5-GW two-year build cycle in the US.
“As the production tax credit fades, US offshore annual capacity additions will depend increasingly on state leadership. We expect this to yield 23.3 GW over the 10-year outlook period.
Compliance with the EU’s energy and climate targets for 2030 will drive the addition of 225 GW in Europe, according to Wood Mackenzie.
“Land constraints in mature countries will push a quarter of Europe’s growth offshore, where the sector will comprise 32% of additions in western Europe and 43% of additions in northern Europe from 2020 to 2029,” Mr Lewandowski said.
Supply chain constraints and delays caused by the coronavirus will curtail near-term growth potential in China, yet developers will still manage to connect 26 GW of wind power to the grid in 2020.
Across the 10-year outlook, Wood Mackenzie expects 250 GW of wind power capacity to be brought online in China. Growth in the offshore sector and wind repowering opportunities will bolster onshore development.
The rest of Asia will add 107 GW between 2020 and 2029. “Additions in India will account for 51% of new capacity, as the country works to comply with aggressive targets,” said Mr Lewandowski.
“Offshore demand in the rest of the sub-region will add 18 GW – or approximately 35% of new capacity – over the outlook period.”