Growing orderbook versus ageing fleet: balancing supply in the dry bulk sector

According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers’ latest monthly review, the orderbook-to-fleet ratio stood at 10.4% in terms of deadweight tonnage (dwt) in January 2025, compared with 8.6% in the same period last year. The Ultramax, Kamsarmax, Newcastlemax and Handysize segments lead with ratios of 28.6%, 21.7%, 19.8%, and 10.7%, respectively.

Following the surge in newbuilding orders since 2023, 2025 is set to see a significant increase in vessel deliveries. According to Intermodal, 541 bulk carriers, with a combined capacity of 38.3M dwt, are expected to join the global fleet this year. This represents the highest vessel count since 2016 and the largest total dwt delivered since 2021. 

The highest number of deliveries will be in the Ultramax/Supramax and Handysize segments, with 196 and 146 vessels, respectively. The Kamsarmax/Panamax segment follows with 121 vessels, while 40 new Capesize ships are set to enter service.

An ageing fleet

Despite the influx of new tonnage, the fleet is ageing. The average age of the bulk carrier fleet stands at 12.9 years, with vessels over 16 years old accounting for approximately 29.0% of the total fleet, according to Xclusiv Shipbrokers.

In the Ultramax segment, which has the largest orderbook, only 1.3% of vessels are over 16 years old. In contrast, the older Supramax segment has 38.3% of its fleet above this threshold. The Kamsarmax/Panamax sector follows a similar pattern, with 7.1% of Kamsarmaxes and 58.3% of Panamaxes exceeding 16 years. 

Meanwhile, Handysize bulk carriers older than 16 years account for 27.3% of the segment’s fleet. 

In larger vessel categories, 11.5% of Newcastlemaxes and 28.3% of Capesize bulk carriers exceed 16 years. Notably, the Capesize orderbook-to-fleet ratio is just 3.0%, indicating limited replacement tonnage for this sector.

Rising demolition prospects

This ageing fleet is expected to drive higher demolition activity, particularly amid the current weak freight market. 

Shipbroker Howe Robinson noted in a recent report that as the average age of the fleet increases, and with considerably weaker freight market prospects, an increase in demolition is expected, particularly in sectors with the oldest vessels, such as Panamax and Handysize.

According to Allied Shipbroking, eight bulk carriers with an average age of 28 years were scrapped in January 2025, the majority belonging to the Panamax and Supramax segments. By comparison, in 2024, 65 bulk carriers were sold for recycling, led by 19 Panamaxes, followed by 15 Handysize vessels and 15 Ultramax/Supramax ships.