Freight remains high, transits stay far below normal and insurers say war cover is still available for ships entering the Strait of Hormuz
The latest updates suggest the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, with vessel movements still at a fraction of normal levels even as tanker markets stay firm.
Clarksons said transits through the Strait remained 95% below preconflict levels, averaging about four per day over the past week against about 125 before the conflict, with 75% of those sailings exiting the Gulf.
It is estimated that about 10 oil tankers carrying 12M barrels have transited in the previous seven days, compared with 250 vessels carrying 300M barrels in a normal week.
Clarksons said 10% of global oil supply and 6% of global gas supply is offline, alongside 3% of global refining capacity.
It also said about 1,100 ships representing 37M gross tonnes and US$30Bn in value are inside the Gulf, excluding locally trading vessels.
That total includes about 300 oil tankers – 6% of crude tanker tonnage, 8% of VLCCs and 4% of product tanker tonnage.
Despite the loss of cargo volume, freight remains elevated.
Clarksons said VLCC earnings are at US$227,000 per day, MR tanker earnings at US$52,000 per day, LNG at US$150,000 per day and VLGC earnings at US$74,000 per day.
The cost of moving a barrel of crude oil remains elevated at US$10/bbl on a US Gulf-Asia voyage, up from US$5/bbl at the start of the year.
Clarksons reports that crude exports from Yanbu are running at about 4M b/d, up from 1M b/d, with the potential to rise to 5M b/d, with about 40 VLCCs waiting or en route.
Insurance remains available: in a 22 March statement, Lloyd’s Market Association head of marine and aviation Neil Roberts said, “War insurance is currently available to cover insureds from war perils, and it remains available within the Lloyd’s and London Company market today for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz.”
He added, “The reason ships are not moving is not through a lack of insurance; it is a question of the risk to crew and vessel safety being assessed by the ship masters and owners as too high.”
The LMA said 88% of surveyed participants in the Lloyd’s marine war market still had appetite to underwrite international hull war risks, and more than 90% still had appetite to underwrite international cargo.
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