Iran-linked vessels test US blockade limits as tanker owners line up for Gulf cargoes

However, most movements continue to take place with AIS switched off, underscoring the shipping industry’s continued caution towards operating in the region.

Despite the cautious sentiment, some shipowners are already repositioning vessels towards the Strait of Hormuz. Owners with ships currently trading in the Atlantic, for example, are redirecting tonnage towards the Middle East, signalling their intention to transit the Strait on Friday, when the peace agreement is expected to be formally signed.

Market participants expect vessels loading in the Gulf to command substantial freight premiums. "Owners will be looking for significant returns to load out of the Gulf, whether they operate VLCCs, Suezmaxes or LR2 tankers," market sources said.

BRS Shipbrokers said in its latest weekly report that while several VLCC owners appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, some vessels returning from discharge operations in Asia may either slow steam or wait in the vicinity of Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Indonesia before deciding whether to head north towards the Middle East or southwest towards the Atlantic.

According to Kpler data, 17 vessels have exited the Gulf since 14 June, when Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had agreed to the immediate and permanent cessation of military operations.

Of these, 16 departed laden, carrying crude oil, clean petroleum products, grain, fertilisers, LNG and LPG cargoes. Most followed a "dark" or unknown route, sailing with their AIS switched off. Two followed the Iranian route, while one used the designated IMO transit route.

Iran testing the ceasefire

An interesting development is that at least four laden tankers operated by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) reactivated their AIS signals following the 14 June announcement.

Kpler data shows that two VLCCs moved beyond the Gulf of Oman-Arabian Sea US naval blockade boundary, while another VLCC appeared to return towards Iran in ballast, suggesting coordinated fleet movements ahead of any formal sanctions relief or easing of blockade measures.

More specifically, VLCCs Hero II and Diona, each carrying approximately 2M barrels of Kharg Island crude loaded in late March and early April, respectively, reappeared on AIS on 16 June, already east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Another VLCC, Amber, reactivated its AIS signal on the same day near the eastern entrance of the Strait, moving at near-zero speed after loading approximately 2M barrels of crude in mid-April.

Kpler also noted that VLCC Stream appeared to be transiting northwest through the Gulf of Oman towards the Strait of Hormuz in ballast. The vessel’s movements suggest it may be returning to Iran to load cargo, even as other NITC tankers move outbound towards the blockade boundary.

According to Kpler, the near-simultaneous AIS reactivation of these Iranian-linked vessels within hours of one another points to coordinated operational decision-making rather than independent commercial activity.

"Their apparent movement towards the blockade line suggests NITC may be testing the practical limits of the ceasefire framework before formal sanctions waivers and blockade relief take effect," Kpler said.

A flood of crude

Arrow Research said in a report this week that the region could require up to four months to return to 90% of normal export volumes.

A durable reopening of the Strait would likely lead to an immediate increase in tanker traffic, although full normalisation is unlikely before the second half of the third quarter as market participants continue to exercise caution, analysts said.

The firm expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to trigger a sharp upward repricing of crude tanker freight rates, driven both by improved sentiment and by the return of Gulf cargoes, which would help absorb excess tonnage currently positioned west of Suez.

BRS anticipates that charterers will flood the market with prompt crude cargoes, given that global markets have effectively been deprived of Middle Eastern crude exports for almost four months.

Notably, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expected to continue maximising exports via routes that bypass the Strait while simultaneously increasing shipments from Gulf terminals, potentially pushing export volumes to record levels, BRS said.

"The approximately 50 VLCCs currently waiting outside the Middle East Gulf or off the west coast of India should be sufficient to cover around two weeks of Middle Eastern exports. Beyond that, much will depend on the arrival of additional ballasters," the firm concluded.