Middle East crisis: why Latin America’s energy supplies matter more than ever

Vortexa’s 19 March 2026 Energy Market Insights: LatAm Edition webinar argued that Latin America has become more important to global energy balances because it is one of the few regions able to add replacement barrels as Middle East disruption removes supply and raises price pressure across crude oil, products, and oil and gas markets.

Vortexa senior oil market analyst Rohit Rathod said Latin American crude oils would not replace all lost barrels, “but the quality” and incremental supply would help ease pressure on the supply side.

The central crude oil argument is that Latin America has added about 1.8M b/d of oil and oil product exports over the past five years, with most of the growth coming from Brazil, Guyana, Argentina and the return of Venezuelan barrels.

Vortexa noted that the region could add about 0.5M b/d of incremental crude in 2026, led by Guyana’s Uaru project, Brazil’s Bacalhau FPSO ramp-up and further Argentine growth.

Mr Rathod said medium-sweet and heavy-sour Latin American grades offer a “desired barrel” for refiners and will become increasingly important to Asian buyers seeking alternatives to Middle East supply.

Venezuela was presented as the most immediate swing factor, with Vortexa director of maritime risk and intelligence Claire Jungmann noting that a new US Treasury licence has opened the way for Venezuelan oil to be sold through US companies and into global markets, while cash flows remained routed through US-controlled accounts.

Ms Jungmann said the change is likely to normalise Venezuelan trade on compliant tonnage rather than reduce the dark fleet, because displaced vessels will probably move on to Iranian or Russian trades.

In the Q&A session, Ms Jungmann said Vortexa sees scope for an additional 200,000–300,000 b/d in the near term, taking Venezuelan output to around 1.2M b/d by end-2026.

The webinar also showed that Latin America’s importance extends well beyond crude oil.

On products, Vortexa said Venezuelan diluent demand is pulling in naphtha, Mexico’s slower refinery runs are keeping gasoline imports elevated, and Brazil is taking a growing share of Russian diesel while US barrels are shifting to the west coast of South America.