More than 680 GW of new wind power capacity will come online globally in the next decade, according to research by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, much of it offshore.
Wood Mackenzie recently upgraded its Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q4 2018 by 2% compared to the outlook published in Q3. Most upgrades occur in the medium-term, boosting annual capacity additions from 2020 to 2023 by an average of 2.7 GW. The maturation of the European offshore sector continues to be a strong driver of wind in the region.
“With 16 GW of offshore wind power capacity installed in Europe by the end of 2018 and more than 47 GW expected to come online in the region from 2018 to 2027, the European offshore sector continues to be a focal point of growth for the wind power industry,” said Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables director of Americas power and renewables research, and lead author of the outlook, Luke Lewandowski.
Several of the key upgrades analysed in the Q4 outlook update highlight an indirect consequence of the European offshore experience, that is, announced and expected offshore commitments from emerging offshore wind power markets.
Mr Lewandowski said, “The European offshore wind experience has encouraged governments in other regions to support it to comply with carbon reduction strategies and renewable energy targets as well as to more firmly secure domestic power supply.”
Favourable announcements from the governments of Japan and South Korea resulted in a more than 1.5-GW upgrade quarter-on-quarter. By the end of the 10-year outlook, this support will yield an installed offshore base of more than 2 GW in each country, a significant rate of growth, considering that neither country has more than 100 MW of offshore wind power capacity installed today.
The fledgling US offshore market also received an upgrade. “Attractive price signals are expected to motivate an increase in state-level procurement activity from both pioneering states, such as Massachusetts and New York, as well as new entrants over the long-term, such as California and Delaware,” said Mr Lewandowski.
The upgrade will increase installed offshore capacity in the US to approximately 10 GW by the end of 2027, representing 15% of all new capacity over the 10-year outlook.
Firm offshore turbine order intake in China through three quarters comprised about 25% of order intake in the market, indicating the increasing importance of the offshore sector to the local industry. Although the 10-year outlook for China’s offshore sector remains unchanged quarter-on-quarter, strong turbine order activity in 2018 confirms China’s rising position as the leading global market in the offshore sector, as it will account for nearly a third of new offshore capacity added globally from 2018 to 2027.
Global order intake capacity increased 28% year-on-year in Q3 2018 and is up nearly 40% through the first three quarters of the year. Although the China market continues to drive firm turbine order volume there are plenty of encouraging signs from other regions. The share of order intake capacity from the offshore sector grows as demand proliferates globally.