Before making any predictions for the tanker shipping trends in 2023, it is instructive to look back at the predictions made for 2022
As McQuilling Services commercial director Stefanos Kazantzis said at the Tanker Shipping & Trade Conference, Awards & Exhibition 2022 in Athens, “As analysts, our job is to be wrong. That is the fundamental principle of analytics. But the question is, how wrong are we?”
How wrong were the predictions made at the end of 2021 for the tanker sector in 2022?
Freight rates and earnings were predicted to improve – this is a trend rehashed every year – and for 2022 the prediction was predicated on seasonality and the low orderbook. There was no prediction that earnings would soar from the average of US$14,000 per day (time charter equivalent) for VLCCs in 2021 to the current average for 2022 of US$42,000 per day.
This change in fortunes is very much down to the disruption of the tanker trades brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent imposition of sanctions and the West’s attempt to limit Russia earnings from its energy exports.
There is no indication of the war ending soon, and this trend of firm tanker earnings looks sustainable in 2023 but the outright ban on Russian oil product imports into the EU from 5 February 2023 will have an impact, along with the 5 December 2022 price cap on Russian oil.
In response, the dark fleet of tankers with no identifiable ultimate beneficial owner is likely to grow in size in 2023 as Russia seeks to use proxies to export energy.
From 1 December 2022, Turkey has been conducting detailed checks on the insurance of tankers and oil cargoes seeking to transit its waters – this kind of direct action from littoral states to protect home waters is likely to continue in 2023.
Meanwhile, in the legitimate tanker sector, the dramatic increase in earnings does not seem to have moved the tanker orderbook, which continues to wither to 6.2% of the current overall tanker fleet, and just 2.1% of the current Suezmax tanker fleet (Clarksons Research Services data).
The weakest tanker orderbook in decades will continue to be a trend in 2023 while LNG carrier contracting and container ship orders push up prices beyond sustainable levels.
The second prediction concerned the Covid pandemic and crewing. Concerns over Covid seem to have diminished and are no longer a major issue, although reframing the human factor in shipping is going to be a concern for many years to come.
Alternative fuels were seen as a trend in 2022, and this was one theme that had some verity then and still does for 2023. The LNG dual-fuel orderbook is expanding as a percentage of vessels on order, and belatedly, methanol has achieved recognition as a transition fuel.
At SMM it was announced an ammonia-powered marine engine was being tested in Denmark and fuel cells, hydrogen and wind-assistance are making great strides forward in the tanker sector and will be a theme in 2023.
The prediction of climate change extremism in 2022, was with hindsight, a bit extreme. In the UK and elsewhere there have been attempts in 2022 to halt the import of oil at refineries but overall, there was no indication this was having an impact on the tanker market as a whole.
Two predictions that can be made with a high degree of confidence are that the highly successful live Tanker Shipping & Trade conferences will take place in 2023.
The Chemical & Product Tanker Conference, Awards and Exhibition will return in April 2023 and in November the third Tanker Shipping & Trade Conference, Awards and Exhibition will be held in Athens. Direct your sponsorship enquiries to Paul Dowling (paul.dowling@rivieramm.com).
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