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Pakistan announces deal between US and Iran; fate of Strait of Hormuz transits unclear
US President Trump says he "fully authorize(s) the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz" but Iran’s state media has claimed the deal calls for reopening of strait under "Iranian arrangements"
Reports from world leaders indicate that the beginnings of a peace deal have been reached in the three-and-a-half-month war between the US and Israel and Iran.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was the first to announce the deal, taking to X (formerly Twitter) to say that "both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," where Israel and Hezbollah have continued to trade attacks during a more than month-long supposed ceasefire that preceded the announcement of what Pakistan called "the Peace Deal". Israel reportedly bombed a Beirut suburb on the day the deal was announced, drawing criticism from the US and Iran.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not commented on the reports of a deal between the US and Iran. The most recent two posts on his X account were a statement defending a drone strike in Lebanon due to what he said were "continued Hezbollah attacks" and a message wishing US President Trump happy birthday.
A far-right Israeli minister, however, was reported to have claimed that Israel is not bound by the terms of the deal and that the country is "not party to this agreement".
Prime Minister Sharif indicated that the agreement of a deal, which Iran’s state media outlet Mehr called a "memorandum of understanding between the governments", was the first step in a lengthy schedule of meetings and talks to reach an "official signing ceremony". That ceremony’s place and time have reportedly been set for Switzerland on Friday, 19 June.
"With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony," he said.
US President Donald Trump took to his own social media platform soon after the announcement from Pakistan to exclaim that "oil will flow on both ends again for the region, and the world".
"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade," Mr Trump said, concluding, "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"
However, Iran’s Mehr agency had previously reported on draft terms of the deal, showing a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and "under Iranian arrangements".
International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said he welcomed the agreement.
"This is a moment of opportunity to restore regional stability and stabilise the global economy," the joint group of Europe’s four largest economies said.
The mini-bloc also indicated their willingness to assist with mine clearance efforts and to play an "indepenedent" role in reassuring commercial shipping of safe transit.
"The urgent re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz with unconditional and unrestricted freedom of navigation is essential. We are committed to playing our part to achieve this —in accordance with our respective constitutional requirements— including through a strictly defensive and independent mission to reassure commercial shipping and conduct mine clearance operations," the countries said.
The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) reiterated that extracting the hundreds of ships stuck in the Middle East Gulf will not be immediate and indicated the IMO is best positioned to coordinate efforts.
"This announcement comes as a relief to the 20,000 seafarers who have been caught in the middle of this war. Their safe departure from the region must be a top priority but will take time," the ICS said. "With around 500 ships needing to pass through the Strait to exit the area this will require coordination. The International Maritime Organization has a crucial role, working alongside industry and states in the region, to ensure this is done as safely and as quickly as possible."
Similarly, BIMCO suggested any return to normalisation of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz should come under the direction of the United Nations to clarify matters including safe transit routes, traffic separation measures, sequencing of ships leaving the Gulf, reporting procedures, ship security procedures and procedures for naval protection and emergency response.
"The statements by the US and Iran are currently unclear and do not offer sufficient information regarding key aspects such as timings and safe routes. Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point. We advise shipowners to continue doing thorough risk assessments and appeal to all parties to put the safety of seafarers first," BIMCO said.
Intertanko, too, has weighed in on the situation, telling ship masters to "take nothing for granted".
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-linked Fars news agency has claimed that Iranian negotiators changed the text of the "understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz" to include "changes that definitively and explicitly emphasized the issue of exercising Iranian-Oman sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz". The text of the agreement remains unpublished.
Claims regarding vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
In the days leading up to the announcement of a deal, IRGC-linked entity the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has claimed the strait will be "closed until further notice".
The PGSA blamed ’aggressive’ US forces for what it said was a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which it purports to manage transit.
"Applicants who have already obtained transit permits are kindly requested to remain patient and await further notice by the PGSA," the entity said in a post to X (formerly Twitter).
US CENTCOM refuted the claim of a closed strait, saying "commercial ships are continuing to transit in and out of the Strait of Hormuz," in the early hours of 11 June, local time.
Donald Trump made claims to media and on his own social media platform that the US military had undertaken "a secret mission to support oil tankers and other commercial ships through the Straight [sic] of Hormuz". Mr Trump claimed that 200 vessels and 100M barrels of oil had been ferried safely through the strait.
"I’m just announcing today for the first time. We’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil, millions of barrels. Every night, we took out oil. Now I’m going to tell you, because they just figured it out," Mr Trump said, referring to Iran.
Independent oil cargo tracking firm TankerTrackers claimed in a post on X that there were several "dark ship-to-ship transfers of oil in the Middle East" over the weekend of 7-8 June.
If Mr Trump’s claims are true, the 100M barrels of oil only represent a fraction of the oil flows that typically transited the Strait of Hormuz prior to current restrictions on transits stemming from the US and Israeli-initiated war against Iran.
Kpler told Riviera that the prewar baseline was around 545.5M barrels of oil per month exported through the Strait of Hormuz, using the three-month average as of February 2026. That is equivalent to roughly 18M barrels per day moving through the strait before the war broke out.
"If we take the claim of 100M barrels transported under US guidance at face value, that volume represents only about 18% of one normal prewar month of exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Put another way, it is equivalent to roughly five to six days of prewar flows," Kpler Maritime Risk and Compliance Manager Dimitris Ampatzidis said.
Well-known shipping analyst Saul Mercogliano speculated that the US has been using autonomous vessels, aircraft and drones to provide escorts to vessels moving through the strait under cover of darkness. Transiting overnight and with AIS transponders off, a group of tankers would run oil out of the Middle East Gulf, transfer the oil to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman and then return covertly through the Strait of Hormuz to reload, he theorised.
"Tankers, including Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Persian Gulf," Mr Mercogliano said in a speculative post on X. "The VLCCs are conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The empty tankers, which ran the Strait with[out] their AIS, run back through the strait to pick up a new load of oil from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar or Iraq."
Mr Mercogliano said his theory would explain the relatively static number of ships that have remained trapped in the Middle East Gulf and surmised that the vessels making the trips back and forth through the strait would have access to some type of war risk insurance coverage.
"This explains why we have not seen an appreciable drop in the number of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. By running the same ships, war risk insurance, potentially provided by the US through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) through a pool of approximately of US$40Bn, could be covering these ships making the transits," he said, noting the theory may "also explain the recent announcement by Kuwait to fix new contracts for its oil".
Mr Mercogliano further speculated that a downed Apache helicopter that the US cited as a cause for its escalation of attacks on Iran was "probably a part of this operation".
Iran, too, appears to have enabled a limited number of energy-laden vessels to transit the strait. British-Israeli maritime intelligence consultancy Windward AI said that, between 5-10 June, Iran-linked LPG cargoes reached India and Pakistan despite the US blockade on Iranian ports.
"Five LPG carriers used AIS spoofing, dark transit, and fraudulent flags to obscure loading and voyage patterns," Windward said, noting that AIS-visible transits of the strait "dropped sharply after the MARIVEX disabling" by the US.
Windward also pointed out that Kharg Island crude loading remains uncertain.
US President Trump claimed on 11 June that US forces would be "hitting Iran very hard tonight" and that the US would, "at some point in the not too distant future" take control of Kharg Island.
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