Panama Canal Authority adds further draft restrictions in waterway in coming weeks

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has made additional reductions in maximum navigable drafts after warning that a potentially severe El Niño could affect water availability for the canal.

An El Niño weather pattern has, in the past, caused drought conditions for the Central American nation and restricted numbers of transits through the global shipping shortcut. 

The draft restriction for Neopanamax locks is now to be dropped below 15 metres from 24 July, when vessels transiting the locks will have to adhere to a 14.94-metre draft.

From 15 August, the maximum draft will be lowered again, to 14.78 metres (m). 

The notice to shipping came on 1 July 2026, in what the ACP said was part of its water management strategy for Lake Gatun, which feeds the canal.

"Considering the potential development of an El Niño phenomenon over the watershed in the upcoming months, the ACP will implement a draft reduction at the Neopanamax Locks. The ACP will continue to closely monitor lake levels and hydrological projections and will announce any additional operational adjustments as deemed necessary," the organisation said.

Based on current and projected water levels at Gatun Lake, the ACP had already set an earlier draft restriction, effective on 3 July 2026, when the maximum authorised draft for vessels transiting the Neopanamax Locks was lowered to 15.09 m.

Citing ’historically high’ levels in its Gatún Lake reservoir, in early May 2026, the ACP said it did not foresee the need for overall transit restrictions in 2026.

The US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the EU’s Earth observation programme Copernicus have both confirmed the development of the El Niño weather pattern based on water temperatures and air flow patterns over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which indicate the start of the phenomenon.

NOAA forecasts predict a nearly two-thirds likelihood (63%) of a "very strong El Niño", while the EU’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) said the likelihood is high that this El Niño weather event could be "unprecedented" and "potentially historic".

The JRC said forecasts for the weather pattern are expected to "worsen drought, flood, heat, and storm conditions across many regions of the world", with Central America among them.

The Panama Canal Authority has said it has been carefully monitoring water levels and weather models as it faces what it calls "greater climate variability".

The ACP said the Central American region’s last dry season was "among the wettest on record since 1950" and prompted the canal authority to "strengthen water reserves in Gatún and Alhajuela Lakes", two of the reservoirs used to supply water both for canal transits as well as for more than half of the country’s population.

The ACP has undertaken what it says is continuous monitoring of the current "El Niño scenario" since late 2025 and its actions to set draft restrictions are part of water-saving measures at the locks. 

Panama Canal Authority has said it updates lake-level projections every week but that "current data does not forecast the need for transit restrictions through December 31, 2026".

Under typical water level conditions, the Panama Canal has capacity for 34 to 38 daily transits, but the Canal Authority was forced to cull transits during 2023 and into early 2024, due to low water levels after an El Niño climate cycle across the tropical Pacific contributed to a drought.

According to the Panama Canal Authority, October 2023 saw its lowest levels of rainfall since the earliest recorded registers. 

"History indicates that the most pronounced impacts of moderate or strong El Niño events tend to be reflected more clearly in the subsequent year, as was the pattern in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016, and 2023–2024. Accordingly, operational projections for 2027 are already being developed," the ACP said in May.