With a population of only 780,000 and potential to produce 750,000 b/d of crude oil by the end of 2025, Guyana will a new driver in tanker tonne-mile demand
That is according to a report from EA Gibson Shipbrokers. Guyana is situated between Brazil and Venezuela, and with a relatively small population compared to these two giants, it has no crude oil refining capacity and a small demand for refined imports. That will change rapidly. According to Gibson ExxonMobil, HESS, CNOOC, Tullow, Repsol, Total and Qatar Petroleum are active in the offshore blocks licensed by the government. This has made Guyana one of the few bright spots in the offshore support vessel market.
The exploitation of the offshore crude oil fields will be by FPSO. The first production from FPSO Liza Destiny (ex-Tina, 1999-built, 309,300 dwt) was an SBM Offshore project that just left Singapore and is expected to produce crude oil by the end of 2020. This 120,000 b/d phase one will be followed by phase two (220,000 b/d) and completed with phase three (180,000 b/d). Two further FPSOs are planned, which could lift output to 750,000 b/d.
With so little local demand, the crude oil exported will add to global tanker tonne-mile demand. Gibson points out that the crude oil exports will produce a considerable boost to the country’s bank balance. “In 2018 the country’s GDP was estimated at US$3.6Bn according to World Bank, with its stake in the various fields worth potentially US$13-15Bn in revenue by 2025.”
On the downside, Guyana is next door to increasingly unstable Venezuela, which has already indicated that it feels that some of the offshore oil fields are in its territory.