Trump says truce is 'over'; shipping again a victim in US-Iran cycle of attacks

The US and Iran are once again engaged in military reprisals after a series of attacks on commercial ships, with each side accusing other of violations of the  ’memorandum of understanding’ ceasefire deal signed on 18 June. 

United States Central Command (US Centcom) released a statement on the conclusion of the US military’s rounds of "offensive strikes" in which the military command claimed Iran’s strikes on three commercial shipping vessels were "a clear and dangerous violation of the ceasefire".

The US named the three vessels that it accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of attacking as Marshall Islands-flagged Al Rekayyat, Saudi Arabia-flagged Wedyan, and Liberian-flagged Cyprus Prosperity. 

Qatar publicly accused Iran of attacking its Naklilat LNG carrier Al Rekayyat on 7 July. 

The latter two vessels, believed to be the same vessels that reported attacks on the same day to the Royal Navy’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre, are VLCCs owned by Saudi Arabia’s Bahri and South Korea’s Sinokor, respectively, according to the Equasis database. Both VLCCs were said to have sustained structural damage, with no casualties or environmental damage resulting from the strikes.

Bahri confirmed the attack on its VLCC, Wedyan, saying "all crew members are safe and accounted for, and the cargo remains secure". The vessel remains in a seaworthy condition, according to the company.

Sinokor, the holder of the world’s largest fleet of VLCCS, did not respond immediately to a request for comment on the attack on its tanker, Cypriot Prosperity.

In response to the vessel attacks, US Centcom said US forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 IRGC small boats in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran reportedly hit back at US strikes with a wave of ballistic missile launches aimed at what the IRGC claimed were 85 US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait. 

The US then struck back at an IRGC launch site. 

US Centcom said it had hit approximately 80 Iranian military targets on 7 July and follow-up strikes targeted some 90 Iranian military targets, according to the organisation.

The US government’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also took aim at Iranian oil revenues, reversing a decision to lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil in connection with the ceasefire deal and reinstating the sanctions with General License X1 that declares the "revocation and wind down" of a 21 June authorisation for production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil and products. 

"All transactions prohibited by the above-listed authorities that are ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of transactions previously authorized by General License X are authorized through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time, July 17, 2026, provided that any payment to a blocked person must be made into a blocked, interest-bearing account located in the United States," the US Treasury Department advised.

Iran’s foreign ministry accused the United States of repeatedly violating the memorandum of understanding on the ceasefire and warned that Iran would take "decisive measures" in response. Tehran’s chief negotiator in ceasefire talks with Washington Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf listed alleged breaches on X (formerly Twitter) that included US interference in the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli military strikes in Lebanon and attacks on southern Iran.

Mr Ghalibaf also pointed to the US Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, describing it as another violation of the agreement.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi posted on X that "Para 13 of the MoU is clear: Negotiations on final Deal will not commence if threats continue". 

Speaking at a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), US President Trump said he believes the interim ceasefire laid out in the MoU is ’over’, but that Iranian talks can continue.

"As far as I’m concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. They’re good people," Mr Trump was quoted as saying, "but they have to come back to me. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with [Iran]."

The head of advisory at UK-based private security firm EOS Risk Group Martin Kelly, who has drawn up an infographic (below) outlining a nine-step, repeating cycle of escalation and de-escalation in the US-Iran negotiations, said "unresolved issues such as control of SoH [Strait of Hormuz], Israel-Hezbollah etc will continue to derail any sort of lasting agreement".

Mr Kelly said the current round of confrontations, at peak escalation, or step five of the cycle, would "likely continue but for no more than 48 hours, perhaps less".

"During this period, Iran will continue to enforce control of SoH by VHF hailing and further attacks," he said, noting that vessels are either turning away from navigating the Strait of Hormuz or using the Iranian-approved route.

If the US and Iran do reach the de-escalation phase of the cycle again, Mr Kelly said "shipping will peak and trough cautiously until Iran attacks another ship and the cycle starts again".

International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez issued a statement condemning the latest round of attacks on commercial vessels, calling the region volatile and calling on the governments involved in the war to de-escalate and facilitate safe departure for the ships and nearly 6,000 seafarers aboard them which remain trapped in the Middle East Gulf.

"These reckless attacks have again placed innocent seafarers in grave danger. No seafarer should have to risk their life simply for doing their job. 

As long as the safety and security of crews cannot be assured, I urge flag States, shipowners, operators and all relevant authorities to avoid exposing seafarers to unnecessary danger by transiting the Strait," Mr Dominguez said.