UK launches study to address impact of wakes on production from offshore windfarms

As first highlighted by OWJ in December 2024, the UK government has been seeking expert opinion from across the offshore wind industry to examine the potential that wake effect could have on offshore windfarms.

In recent years, it has been suggested that unco-ordinated offshore wind projects could impede the development of the European offshore wind industry, if windfarm-induced wake effects propagate far enough to adversely affect power production in neighbouring projects. As first highlighted by OWJ in 2023, disputes between developers – and potentially between states – suggest the issue is a potentially challenging one for the offshore wind industry.

The new project, POUNDS (Prediction Of UnqualifieD losseS from offshore windfarm wakes), aims to provide a national-scale assessment of interactions between windfarms, supporting policymakers and industry leaders to optimise offshore wind energy production in the drive to net zero.

The UK government has set a target to reach 43-50 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Rapid progress has already been made with 16 GW now in operation and further projects are in development under the recent Contract for Difference allocations. Nevertheless, achieving the 2030 target requires an up to three-fold increase of capacity, potentially reaching over 100 GW installed capacity by 2050. 

Such a substantial expansion of offshore windfarms means they must be built closer together, making it crucial to understand how this affects predictions of annual energy production, but when large groups of turbines are built in close proximity, they create ‘wakes’ where wind slows down behind them. 

Wakes have been observed extending 65 km and are increasingly impacting the performance of neighbouring windfarms, reducing the efficiency of the turbines in producing energy and causing conflicts between windfarm operators.

POUNDS is funded by Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) Supergen Offshore Renewable Energy Impact Hub and will be carried out in partnership with leading institutes, industry experts and policymakers, including Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult (ORE Catapult), Arup, EDF, RWE and The Crown Estate.

The project’s key aims include assessing how offshore windfarms affect each other’s energy production, and the revenue implications of these impacts, and helping to identify the best locations for future offshore windfarms to minimise these losses and ensure the UK’s renewable energy targets are met. Other key aims include validating modelled performance data against operational data and improving model accuracy in forecasting windfarm energy production. By modelling the interactions between windfarms more precisely, the team hopes to provide better guidance for developers and policymakers, reduce investment risks, and resolve conflicts between windfarm operators. POUNDS could, the parties involved in the project suggest, ensure the UK’s offshore wind expansion, and 2030 target, remain on track.

POUNDS will use ‘mesoscale models’ – a type of advanced numerical weather forecasting model – to model the performance of windfarms spanning UK waters at a resolution of 1 km. It will assess both the windfarms’ operation in 2023, and the thousands more wind turbines that are planned by 2030. The analysis will evaluate the accuracy of the model relative to real-world data and quantify the effects of inter-farm wakes on predicted energy yield. It will also capture windfarm wakes and windfarm performance in comparison to energy export grid data.

University of Manchester research fellow and project lead Dr Pablo Ouro said, “Achieving the target of 43-50 GW of deployed offshore wind by 2030 is crucial for NetZero and energy security, but a reduction in energy prediction due to windfarm wakes must be addressed.

“Our POUNDS project is key to overcoming these challenges, informing policy makers and project developers about strategies to better quantify these losses. Similar initiatives of national importance have been developed in Germany, the Netherlands and the US, and our project aims to support the whole UK offshore wind industry.”

ORE Catapult energy economist Ken Kasriel said, “The UK government’s recent Clean Power 2030 Action Plans identification of inter-farm wind wakes as an area of focus highlights this issue’s importance. This study could make important contributions towards better understanding and planning around them.”

The POUNDS project will be officially launched at the 8th EPSRC ORE Impact Hub Annual Assembly, which will be held at The University of Manchester on 15 April 2025 and is open to academic colleagues.