With US military only targeting Iran-linked trade, analyst predicts ’tit-for-tat mechanism where the US seizes shipping probably followed by Iran seizing ship(s)’
The United States military has issued details around a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that US President Donald Trump announced via social media after negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement to end hostilities or extend the ceasefire beyond its current end date of 22 April.
US Central Command issued a statement that the blockade will apply only to vessels that visit Iranian ports or transit in Iranian ’coastal areas’.
"The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports," US CENTCOM wrote.
The military communications service said that commercial mariners will receive a "formal notice before the start of the blockade containing additional information", but did not offer specifics.
The blockade is set to begin, CENTCOM said, on 13 April, at 10 am Eastern Time in the US, which falls between 17:00-18:00 in the various time zones that surround the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The timing was set by a ’proclamation’ from the US president.
Trump took to the social media platform he owns to announce the blockade but claimed that the blockade would apply to all vessels sailing through the strait, leaving many observers bemused.
"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, the social media post said.
Other military action and economic policy that Mr Trump has announced on social media include tariffs and port fees on commercial shipping vessels, a US$20Bn maritime reinsurance plan and military escorts for vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Of the negotiations with Iran, the US President said that talks mediated by Pakistan in its capital, Islamabad, had gone "well", and that "most points were agreed to" but that areas of disagreement remained.
The outcome, he said, meant that US Navy forces would begin operations to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
Mr Trump blamed Iran for the action, claiming that Iranian threats of naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz amounted to global ’extortion’.
The US President said that the US Navy would simultaneously begin interdicting vessels that had paid tolls to Iran for safe passage of the Strait.
"I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas," Mr Trump wrote, while threatening that "Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!"
Writing on social media platform X, UK-based maritime security consultancy EOS Marine head of advisory Martin Kelly said two US naval destroyers had transited through the Strait of Hormuz on 11 April, despite warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
"IRGC challenged them, told them to stop within 30 minutes or will be fired upon. The DDGs [guided missile destroyers] continued without incident. CENTCOM said they were minesweeping, but DDGs don’t do minesweeping. This was probably more of a freedom of navigation demonstration than MCM [mine counter-measures]; it does, however, give some confidence that mines may not be placed in the SoH," Mr Kelly wrote.
US CENTCOM announced on 11 April that USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) had begun "setting conditions for a mine clearance mission in the Strait of Hormuz, as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps".
Mr Kelly also questioned Mr Trump’s announcement, asking why "not just Iranian trade is blocked," and predicting that seizures of commercial vessels by both the US and Iran would result.
"The IRGC Navy said Strait of Hormuz remains open for civilian vessels under ’smart control’. Military vessels approaching the Strait will be considered a ceasefire violation and met with a ’severe response’," Mr Kelly advised.
"We will now start to see a very tit-for-tat mechanism where the US seizes shipping, probably followed by Iran seizing a ship(s). Re the conflict, there has been no real discussion on what is next. The US & Iran are at an impasse. There are no talks of a second round. Iran still controls the Strait," he said.
The IRGC had consolidated almost total control over the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Israel began bombing Iran on 28 February 2026.
In his posts on Truth Social, the US President also threatened future military action against Iran, saying that the US is "LOCKED AND LOADED, and our military will finish up the little that is left of Iran".
Mr Trump linked his tirade of threats to both Iran’s unwillingness to agree to discontinue its ambitions to build nuclear weapons and what the US President called Iran’s failure to keep what he called a promise to open the Strait of Hormuz.
"This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World," according to Mr Trump’s post.
Negotiations’ end leaves ceasefire uncertain
Diplomatic negotiations in Pakistan ended without a deal, but a temporary, conditional and patchily observed ceasefire period appears to still be in place. That is set to expire on 22 April. Pakistan reportedly urged all parties to maintain the fragile ceasefire deal as US negotiators, including US Vice President JD Vance, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, departed from Pakistan without a clear end to the fighting.
"The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night – Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail and talk about much that has been gotten, but there is only one thing that matters – IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people," Mr Trump wrote.
It remains unclear what effect the military enforcement of a blockade or vessel interdictions will have on the ceasefire, despite threats from both sides.
The IRGC has halted vessels in the Strait, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency, and Iran’s state-backed media outlet Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) released information from Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization that included a map detailing both a traffic separation scheme and the threat of naval mines.
Iran has also reportedly charged tolls to vessels for transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and a toll regime is part of a 10-point plan that the US President had called ’workable’ in social media posts published in the lead-up to negotiations in Pakistan.
Iran’s 10-point plan, published by Iranian state-controlled media outlets, also includes lifting sanctions, Iran’s continued control, via a ’safe-transit protocol’, of the Strait of Hormuz, US military withdrawal from the Middle East and a binding United Nations Security Council resolution, among other things.
No attacks on commercial vessels have been reported in the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire deal was announced, according to the Royal Navy-operated United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre.
Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz ’unchanged’, say analysts
With the status of the ceasefire still in question, very few vessels are attempting a transit, with most transiting out of the Persian Gulf originating from Iran.
France-based commodities data tracker AXS Marine said it tracked four vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz inbound on 8 April. Two container vessels (both under 3,000 TEU) and two bulk carriers (above 50,000 dwt) arrived in ballast to load at Bandar Abbas. All four vessels were Iranian-owned, according to AXS Marine.
Seven vessels transited the Strait outbound between 8 April and early on 9 April, AXS said, with five being bulk carriers. In addition, AXS tracked the transits of a small, Omani-owned feeder vessel and a 46,000-dwt chemical/product tanker.
The tanker "crossed under full AIS blackout" and was under "opaque ownership", according to AXS.
"Transit behaviour remains highly irregular: blank or manipulated AIS transmissions, non-standard cargo declarations mid-transit, continued use of AIS blackout by certain vessels, routeing via Larak Island," AXS said in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
"The nine crossings recorded on 8 April alone do not signal normalisation. Reports also indicate vessels being turned back, while the ceasefire itself has already seen multiple violations."
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