VLCC attack signals shift in Hormuz threat level, but talks look likely to resume

Military commands and a maritime intelligence organisation have reported an attack on a merchant ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman. 

The attack on 27 June was reported by maritime security and intelligence firm Vanguard Tech to have hit 300,866-dwt VLCC Kiku.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the strike -- and its own reprisal strikes on Iranian military targets -- saying commercial transits through the strait continue.

"The Panama-flagged tanker was transiting near the Strait of Hormuz with more than two million barrels of crude oil. CENTCOM forces launched strikes today in direct response to continued Iranian aggression against commercial shipping," the US military organisation said.

The strike on the VLCC was the second strike on a commercial vessel since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding committing all sides in the war to an immediate and permanent halt to military operations on all fronts from 18 June. 

Listed as Greek-owned and managed by shipping database Equasis, Kiku was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz at 08:00 UTC. The master reported that the projectile struck the vessel’s bridge, causing damage. All crew were reported safe.

In the wake of the first attack, on the 9,532-TEU Evergreen Line containership Ever Lovely on 25 June, IMO and the Royal Navy’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre "temporarily paused" operations to facilitate transits of vessels through the strait.

The attacks have resulted in the US-led Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) international naval coalition again raising the threat level for commercial vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz to ’substantial’, a mid-point in the organisation’s threat rating system that indicates that an attack is "a strong possibility".

"Maritime traffic remains at a post-conflict high across both the southern Omani corridor and the northern Iranian-controlled route. The regional threat level is assessed as SUBSTANTIAL following recent deliberate attacks on merchant vessels, and further hostile action is considered a
strong possibility under current conditions. Mariners should expect continued naval presence, congestion along transit routes, and VHF hailing from naval forces to support safe flow. Navigation interference persists, and mine-risk reporting remains relevant within and adjacent to the TSS," a JMIC assessment said. 

Despite the attacks, JMIC said that mine clearance and surveying operations continue through the Strait of Hormuz and that the southern, Omani corridor has been widened, "enabling simultaneous inbound and outbound traffic".

"The widened southern corridor is expected to remain active, with sustained high traffic density and continued US naval coordination measures," the JMIC said.

Fars has also reported that transits of the Iranian designated route through through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing. 

The US responded to the vessel attacks with strikes on Iranian targets, with Iran attacking US bases and Gulf state neighbours in reply. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been reported by Iranian media as claiming that the memorandum of understanding leaves Iran in control of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 

"From now on, violating ships will be dealt with more forcefully than in the past," Iranian news agency Fars reported the IRGC as saying.

"A complete halt in the process" of negotiations was also reported by Fars, though Fars later reported Iran’s chief negotiator at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, as saying that "consultations with Qatar... are ongoing as usual", with diplomats expected to meet in Doha on 30 June to discuss the latest outbreak of violence instead of "technical" issues with the deal. Reports from Washington have cited "senior" US officials claiming that the US military would "stop all the kinetic activity". 

And US President Donald Trump took to his social media platform to claim that "Iran has requested a meeting. It will take place tomorrow in Doha!"