2026 in the offshore wind industry: the beginning of a much-needed reset

Ironically, given the problems the industry continues to face, the offshore wind market is actually in the midst of a busy period of construction activity. Data provided by Clarksons Research shows 53 GW under construction or post-FID.

As the broker and analyst noted, despite current challenges, thanks to earlier FIDs and capex commitments, the industry is currently experiencing a wave of activity. Over the next two years, an average of 19 GW of capacity is due to be completed. These projects represent US$62Bn of capex starting up each year. In comparison, Clarksons noted, over the last four years, the equivalent figures are 9 GW per annum and US$24Bn of capex reaching start-up on average.

Europe needs concrete action at Hamburg meeting

Despite adverse market conditions, EU countries remain firmly behind offshore wind. It is still at the heart of Europe’s energy strategy and the January 2026 North Sea Summit in Hamburg ought to provide answers as to how EU countries plan to revive it. The aim of the summit is to accelerate the expansion of offshore renewable energy, with a focus on the expansion of offshore wind and cross-border interconnectors.

As recently highlighted by OWJ, a ‘New Deal’ for offshore wind is required, as is a Tripartite Contract for the development of offshore wind. Ministers also need to focus on how they can help get projects that won recent auctions over the line, to a final investment decision. The problems vary from country to country, but the common thread is that the business case for new offshore wind is weaker than it used to be. Moving away from ‘negative bidding’ auction models to Contracts for Difference (CfDs) – which provide stable revenues – is key. A New Deal for offshore wind in which governments commit to clear volumes would provide the supply chain with greater certainty and unlock commitments from industry on cost reduction, jobs and investments.

Emerging markets unlikely to make progress for the time being

Given the adverse nature of the investment climate, emerging markets cannot be expected to make significant progress in 2026. Auctions are likely to be postponed until the situation improves and where they do take place, are at risk of failing.

Take Portugal, for instance, where the country’s Minister of Environment and Energy Maria Da Graça Carvalho stated that development of offshore wind will only proceed when it is economically viable, something she said, is “very far from being the case.” Reporting in the Portuguese press suggests the government remains interested in offshore wind auctions (floating offshore wind, in Portugal’s case), but only if it can secure financial assistance from the EU, such as through the Connecting Europe Facility.

In Australia, offshore wind came to be seen as a key part of the country’s energy transition, but it seems increasingly unlikely that projects will now come online in the early 2030s, as planned. A growing number of developers are pulling out of the Australian market, the latest being AGL, which in early December said it would not proceed with its Gippsland Skies project offshore Victoria.

Building offshore windfarms is hard enough in developed markets with the infrastructure required: markets where there are no ports, without a developed market for the vessels required, will have to wait.

That Colombia at the end of 2025 awarded a lease to develop an offshore windfarm to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) proves that new markets can still progress, but it will be difficult for many others to make similar progress, as the fact that only CIP bid in the Colombian auction suggests.

Floating wind – a waiting game which seems to be getting longer

With fixed-bottom projects hard to get over the line, more expensive floating wind projects will be hard-pressed to make progress in 2026, but 2026 to 2028 could yet see floating wind transition from small-scale to commercial-scale.

As ABL group growth director John MacAskill noted recently, early ScotWind projects, those in the Celtic Sea, Utsira Nord in Norway and France’s AO5/AO6 projects will test ports, moorings, heavy-lift logistics and financing structures. And as he also noted, “Failures here will be very expensive, and successes will set patterns for the 2030s.”

Supply chain developments could shape the industry for decades

In October 2025, Ming Yang Smart Energy, the Chinese wind turbine manufacturer, confirmed plans to create what would be Britain’s largest, and first fully integrated, wind turbine manufacturing facility. But the investment plan is subject to final approval by the UK government.

Discussions about the Chinese investment have been taking place for some time, with potential investment in the UK welcomed by some and viewed by others as having serious industrial, energy and national security issues. Ming Yang held extensive discussions with the UK and Scottish governments over the last two years, as well as holding detailed commercial discussions with Great British Energy, the National Wealth Fund, the Scottish National Investment Bank, the Crown Estate and UK Export Finance.

2026 is likely to see the government give the go-ahead for the Chinese plan – or turn it down. Whichever choice it makes is fraught with political, industrial and security ramifications. In the EU, lobbying is intense in support for a transition built around the use of European turbines. The UK, no longer in the EU, does not have a fully integrated turbine manufacturing facility, and no British company designs and builds offshore wind turbines in their entirety. A Ming Yang facility would create jobs and speed up the transition. The UK Ministry of Defence has, reportedly, warned the government that the plan comes with security risks. Republican politicians in the US have argued that the UK should not ‘buy Chinese.’ China has reportedly threatened to reduce investment in the UK if Prime Minister Keir Starmer turns Ming Yang down.