There was some more good news from the German offshore wind sector in late January 2024, but there was also some bad news
The good news is the Federal Network Agency, BNetzA, issued another tender for offshore wind capacity, seeking up to 2.5 GW of new capacity in the North Sea, to enter into operation by 2031. The bad news is as much as 6 GW of capacity could be affected by delays in the rollout of transmission system capacity designed to bring electricity generated by offshore windfarms to the grid.
Tenders for new generation were issued shortly after the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) informed BNetzA there would be delays of up to two years for some grid connection projects. The BSH says what it describes as bottlenecks in the supply chain are among the reasons for the delay.
Responding, Federal Association of Windfarm Operators (BWO) say delays of that magnitude call into question legally agreed targets for offshore wind and send the wrong kind of signals to the supply chain. “The bottlenecks are well known,” says the BWO, citing production capacity, ports and availability of skilled workers. “We must counter these issues with industrial policy. It requires a comprehensive offshore wind strategy that considers the supply chain, ports and other infrastructure.”
Delays in the implementation of transmission system capacity are something Germany knows all about. In the last decade, the ‘Energiewende’ as it was known, saw a rapid increase in generation capacity offshore that wasn’t matched by an increase in grid and high-voltage transmission development. As a result, windfarms were late being connected to the grid and generation was curtailed.
Ironically, the discrepancy in the pace of development of generation capacity and transmission assets was identified as a key challenge for Germany’s energy transition once new plans for offshore wind were unveiled, but it has reared its head again, despite plans to ‘synchronise’ delivery of generation capacity with grid capacity. As the BWO points out, the government wants 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, but delays to 6 GW makes that goal unrealisable. And apart from missed targets and a slower transition, uncertainty inevitably increases the cost of projects and ultimately leads to higher generation costs. As the BWO put it, “the network sets the pace, so the entire expansion path is pushed back.”
The likely delay in transmission capacity is an early warning signal. Now, as the BWO puts it, “all the levers need to be engaged,” so that Germany’s planned expansion of offshore wind can be achieved. It is possible delays might be avoided, but action will need to be taken quickly, to speed up procurement of projects that are behind schedule and determine whether others might be accelerated.
After years of inaction and an inevitable degradation of the supply chain, Germany’s big boost to offshore wind plans was encouraging. The rollout of offshore capacity is slowly picking up speed, but another 21.5 GW – that’s 3.1 GW a year – will have to enter operation in the next seven years to achieve the government’s ambitious target.
That goal is unlikely to be met without industrial policy to support it and organisations such as BWO, VDMA Power Systems, WindEnergy Network and the Offshore-Windenergie Foundation are united in their view that the supply chain – which was so badly affected when the Energiewende went awry – now needs some serious policymaking by the German government, including financing instruments and a regulatory framework that enables investment.
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