China’s drive for self-reliance fuels bauxite demand, lifting Capesize trade

BRS Shipbrokers, citing AXSMarine data, reported Chinese bauxite imports reached almost 31M tonnes in the first two months of 2025, marking a 25% year-on-year increase. Guinea, which has recently grown to be a major bauxite producer and exporter, accounted for 77% of China’s total imports during this period.

Analysts anticipate Chinese bauxite imports will remain high in the foreseeable future, supported by heightened Q2 demand from new alumina capacity commissioning and strong supply from Guinea and Australia.

Focus on domestic production 

China’s push for self-reliance amid trade policy uncertainties has led to increased domestic production across multiple industries, including grains. BRS Shipbrokers notes a similar trend in the aluminum market, influencing both alumina and bauxite supply chains.

Market participants predict a decline in China’s alumina imports this year, a trend expected to persist in the medium term as the country expands its domestic smelting capacity. In the first two months of 2025, alumina imports plummeted by 88%, while domestic production surged 44%.

To sustain alumina production, China must secure a stable bauxite supply. With Indonesia imposing a bauxite export ban, Guinea has emerged as a critical supplier, ensuring supply diversification.

AXSMarine data shows Guinean bauxite exports totalled 143M tonnes in 2024, a 15% increase from the previous year. Over the past two years, China has accounted for 86% of Guinea’s total shipments.

A freight rally on the horizon?

With Capesize vessels handling approximately 60% of global bauxite trades and China representing 75-80% of global bauxite imports, current market conditions should support the Capesize segment, BRS Shipbrokers stated.

Riviera recently reported port congestion in Guinea has reached a five-year seasonal high, signalling a tightening in vessel availability. As of early March, AXSMarine data showed that 50 Capesize vessels – equivalent to 10M dwt, around 3% of the active fleet – were waiting to load at Guinean ports.

Analysts also highlighted a positive shift in tonne-miles: the increasing reliance on Guinean bauxite at the expense of Australian supply – Chinese imports from Australia fell by 4% in the January-February period – means longer trade routes, boosting tonne-mile demand and further constraining vessel availability.

"With Chinese demand expected to remain strong over the next couple of months and a strengthening reliance on Guinean bauxite, this could spillover into a wider dry bulk freight rally," BRS concluded.