WoodMac: Guyana, Suriname LNG deposits could cover 10% of 2035 supply-demand gap

Several gas developments are underway in Guyana and Suriname that could offer new competitive LNG supply sources early in the next decade, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.

The report says Guyana and Suriname could supply up to 12M tonnes per annum (mta) of LNG by the 2030s. The global market still needs 105 mta of pre-final investment decision LNG to fill the supply/demand gap by 2035, according to the report.

"Guyana’s Haimara cluster and Suriname’s Block 52 (Sloanea) are estimated by Wood Mackenzie to hold 13 trillion cubic feet of discovered non-associated gas. These sources could deliver this potential LNG supply at a breakeven, excluding shipping and regasification costs, of about US$6/mmbtu," Wood Mackenzie said.

High well productivity and experienced upstream commercial partners support the analysis, according to the firm.

“Guyana and Suriname projects are firming up at an interesting time,” Wood Mackenzie research analyst Amanda Bandeira said.

According to the report, while US and Qatar LNG dominance is rapidly growing, there is a supply window in the mid-2030s due, in part, to US President Biden’s pause on approving new US LNG export projects.

"In this environment, Guyana and Suriname can offer a new cost-competitive LNG supply source and serve as regional suppliers," Ms Bandeira said, noting the shipping cost advantage of LNG sourced in the Caribbean for use in Central and South America. Suriname and Guyana projects, would, she said, be on equal footing with US Gulf and West Africa projects for LNG deliveries to the main demand centres in southeast Asia.

Despite the strong fundamentals Wood Mackenzie’s analysis showed, the report said developments in Suriname and Guyana face uncertainty due to a lack of clarity on commercial structures and fiscal terms.

“In Suriname, there [are] still no set terms for non-associated gas developments, but we expect this project to move forward swiftly – with first gas in 2031 – as the government and project partners have agreed to a 10-year tax break,” said Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Luiz Hayum. “In Guyana, the government and upstream partners’ alignment on fiscal terms and commercial structure are less advanced, and any disputes could delay the project’s first gas beyond 2031.”