Ammonia: an emerging energy commodity that shipping shouldn’t ignore

Few maritime sectors are watching the energy transition as closely as the gas carrier market. While decarbonisation remains a powerful driver, recent geopolitical developments have also reinforced the importance of energy security and supply diversification. In that environment, ammonia is resurfacing as an efficient way to transport low-carbon energy between regions and connect future production centres with energy-importing markets.

Across East Asia, demand for blue and green ammonia is steadily taking shape as governments and industry seek pathways to decarbonisation while seeking more diverse and resilient energy supplies. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan are exploring how ammonia, long established as a feedstock for fertiliser and other industrial products, can help meet future energy needs, while producers in India, the Middle East, the USA and elsewhere are developing projects to serve this demand. Similar policy and industrial drivers are emerging in Europe, although the dynamics differ between regions. The result is the gradual emergence of new trade routes and a global value chain built around ammonia production, transportation, and consumption, driving demand for the vessels needed to connect supply with demand.

India’s role in this story is becoming increasingly important. The country is progressing major green ammonia initiatives and positioning itself as a future export hub, supported by partnerships with prospective import markets in East Asia. Recent plans to develop green corridors supporting large-scale ammonia production for export to Japan and South Korea illustrate how rapidly these supply chains are evolving.

Of course, the market development has not been entirely straightforward.

Over the past year, several announced ammonia projects have been delayed, scaled back or cancelled altogether. Geopolitical uncertainty, changing economic conditions, and evolving policy frameworks have all influenced investment decisions. DNV analysis shows that projected ammonia production capacity has recently declined substantially compared with earlier expectations, reflecting a more cautious market outlook than many anticipated just a few years ago.

Yet these developments should be viewed as a recalibration rather than a reversal. While some projects have been delayed or scaled back, governments continue to develop import strategies, infrastructure investment is advancing, and producers remain committed to serving future export markets. The long-term demand drivers remain intact.

Navigator Amon Gas ammonia fuelled gas carriers

Navigator Amon Shipping has ordered two 51,350 m3 ammonia-fuelled liquefied ammonia carriers from China (source: Navigator Amon Shipping)

The scale of LPG

As production and demand centres become geographically separated, maritime transportation becomes essential to linking the two. DNV analysis suggests seaborne trade of ammonia as an energy carrier could reach around 120M tonnes annually by 2050, approaching the scale of today’s LPG trade. If realised, this would create one of the most significant new maritime commodity trades in decades.

The timing and ultimate scale of that growth, along with selecting the right vessel capacity, remains challenging, but the direction of travel is increasingly clear.

However, vessels are only one part of the equation.

As ammonia trade volumes grow, transportation capacity will need to be matched by investment throughout the value chain, including export terminals, import infrastructure, storage facilities and supporting logistics networks. The success of the ammonia market will depend on the industry’s ability to expand this ecosystem in step with growing demand.

The good news is that shipping is starting from a position of strength. Ammonia has been transported safely as a cargo for decades, supported by established regulations, operating procedures, and industry expertise.

Scaling volumes will require applying existing knowledge and experience across a larger network of vessels, ports, terminals, and supply-chain partners. As new trade routes emerge between production hubs such as India and demand centres in East Asia, maintaining consistent safety standards and operational excellence will remain essential.

Safety will be a central consideration as this market develops. Ammonia’s toxicity requires specialized handling procedures, appropriate vessel design, gas detection systems, crew competence, and robust emergency-response arrangements. These measures are already well understood within the gas sector and provide a strong foundation for future growth. The priority now is ensuring that this expertise scales alongside the market itself.

Encouragingly, progress is already being made. Across Asia, the industry is moving beyond feasibility studies towards practical implementation. New vessel projects, bunkering trials, port developments and supply-chain partnerships are building the experience required for larger-scale deployment in the future.

The growing demand for low-carbon ammonia in East Asia is helping establish entirely new energy trade flows, encouraging investment in production hubs such as India and creating demand for the ships and infrastructure needed to connect them.

The pace of development may vary, and setbacks are inevitable in any large-scale energy transition. But the broader trend remains clear. As ammonia increasingly emerges as a globally traded energy commodity, demand for ammonia transportation will continue to grow.

For the maritime industry, the opportunity is significant. The challenge now is ensuring that shipping capacity, terminals, storage infrastructure, and operational experience scale in step with growing demand.