IMO’s initial GHG strategy will be revised and adopted at MEPC80 in July, potentially speeding up carbon intensity and GHG reduction targets
When delegates gather for MEPC 80 in July, they will adopt revisions to the initial IMO GHG strategy, likely dramatically strengthening emissions reductions, adding intermediate targets and revisiting the uptake of zero- and near-zero carbon GHG emission fuels, according to an IRI/The Marshall Islands Registry executive.
Speaking at Riviera Maritime Media’s Maritime Decarbonisation Conference, Asia, held in Singapore in April, Richard Dias, regional technical manager, IRI and The Marshall Island Registry, detailed IMO’s priorities and the possible regulatory outcomes at MEPC80, which will be held in London during the week of 3 July.
Representing the world’s third-largest maritime registry, Mr Dias spoke of the significance of accelerating action on reducing ship emissions for his clients and the nation of the Marshall Islands.
“Climate change and decarbonisation are very relevant topics to the Marshall Islands, as it is an island chain in the Pacific,” he said.
To set the stage for his presentation, Mr Dias provided an historical perspective on the development of Marpol Annex VI, which was introduced in 1997 to address air pollution prevention requirements for ships. “At that time, MEPC was invited to consider CO2 reduction strategies which might be feasible, and also work with the UN on studies on CO2 emissions from ships,” he explained.
“We need to stress high levels of ambition and give this clear direction to the industry”
In 2011, Chapter 4 was adopted, addressing energy efficiency regulations for ships, introducing both the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP).
In 2014, IMO adopted the third GHG study. “This gave us some indication of the GHG emissions from international shipping, which accounted for about 2.2% of CO2 emissions [at the time]”, he said.
In 2016, IMO moved ahead with the data collection system (DCS) for fuel oil consumption on ships above 5,000 gross tonnes — which account for about 85% of CO2 emissions from international shipping. The idea behind collecting this ship fuel consumption data is to inform further IMO measures to reduce GHG emissions.
Leading flags of registration, 2022 | ||||
(by deadweight tonnage) | ||||
Flag | # of ships | % of world total | DWT in 000 | |
Panama | 8,025 | 7.8% | 350,401 | |
Liberia | 4,311 | 4.2% | 335,114 | |
Marshall Islands | 4,042 | 3.9% | 289,781 | |
Hong Kong | 2,661 | 2.6% | 207,816 | |
Singapore | 3,227 | 3.1% | 131,369 | |
China | 309 | 7.1% | 114,952 | |
Malta | 2,047 | 2.0% | 114,910 | |
Bahamas | 1,307 | 1.3% | 72,998 | |
Greece | 1,234 | 1.2% | 61,817 | |
Japan | 5,590 | 5.4% | 40,263 | |
Source: UNCTAD calculations based on data from Clarksons Research |
Then, in 2018, IMO introduced its initial GHG strategy, and in 2019 undertook a study to assess its impact on states, particularly developing countries and small island nations. At this time, a technical fund was established for co-operation and capacity-building measures.
In 2020, the fourth IMO GHG study was released and approved. “In this study, it was found that international shipping accounted for 2.89% of global GHG emissions. So there was an increase from 2012, but it was attributed to more than [an] increase in global maritime trade,” he said.
Key points from the study were ‘Yes, you can have some improvement by energy-saving technologies and speed reduction of ships, but this will not be enough.’ Additionally, Mr Dias pointed out: “A large share of the CO2 reductions in 2050 will have to come from low-carbon, alternative fuels.”
In 2021, IMO adopted the key short-term measures of EEXI and CII to reduce the carbon intensity of all ships by 40% by 2030 compared to 2008 levels.
“International shipping accounted for 2.89% of global GHG emissions”
“This is the first time we have [had] some sort of operational and technical approach,” said Mr Dias. “And the carbon intensity will be calculated in 2024 based on all the DCS data that is collected in this year,” he added.
Noting the CII’s rating system, Mr Dias said: “If your ship is rated A’ that’s perfect, it’s the best; but if it is ‘D’ or ‘E’ for three consecutive years, you need to get a corrective action plan to get back to ‘C’ and above.” CII will be reviewed in 2026.
In December 2022, at MEPC 79, amendments to the DCS fuel oil consumption were adopted; there was also progress on revisions to the initial strategy on reducing GHG emissions.
Phased approach to EEDI
While container ships, LNG carriers and general cargo ships had to comply with EEDI Phase 3 requirements for energy efficiency starting in 2022, others, such as refrigerated cargo ships, roro passenger ships and vehicle carriers, will not have to meet those requirements until 2025.
The levels for GHG reductions in the initial strategy were for a target of a 40% reduction of carbon intensity across international shipping to be achieved by 2030. In 2050, this increases to a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions per transport work, and a reduction in GHG emissions by 50% by 2050.
“This figure we have to watch out for in the revision,” he warned.
While no decisions came out the intersessional working group meetings (ISWG-GHG 14) in March, Mr Dias said they were productive because they served as a means of gathering perspectives on the positions of the different delegations to “find some common ground and points of convergence on the various issues.”
Many delegates favoured aligning shipping’s GHG reduction targets with a pathway consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C. “But there is still long way to achieve that or to agree on that,” he said.
Other discussions at ISWG-GHG 14 addressed strengthening current pollutant reduction targets, which might lower carbon and GHG intensity by 40-65% by 2030 compared to 2008. The uptake of low- and zero-carbon fuels is also being considered. “There is a possibly of a new target for low- and zero-carbon GHG emission fuels to represent 5% of the fuel consumed by the global fleet by 2030,” said Mr Dias. Also under consideration is an intermediate emissions target of 2040 to reduce GHG emissions by 50% or more. This could also serve as a way to assess shipping’s progress towards 2050 targets.
“All targets are on the table,” said Mr Dias.
Looking ahead, Mr Dias said CII reduction factors beyond 2026 will be considered, along with market-based measures that put a price on carbon, and a well-to-wake lifecycle analysis of fuels.
Concluded Mr Dias: “At the Intersessional Working Group GHG 14, most of the delegations were in agreement that we need to stress high levels of ambition and give this clear direction to the industry, acknowledging that there will be some supporting measures that will be needed and developed to ensure a just and equitable transition, leaving no one behind. Many delegations that I spoke with stressed the need to find common ground and a willingness to work on possible compromise solutions because that’s the usual way IMO works — by compromise solutions.”
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