LNG carriers unlikely to return soon in Red Sea as few Russia-linked vessels transit

ICIS senior LNG analyst Alex Froley told Riviera that only a handful of Russia-linked vessels – which typically also fall under sanctions – have transited the Red Sea in recent months. All other LNG carrier operators have continued to avoid the area since early 2024, when disruptions escalated.

One such Russia-linked ship, Russia-flagged Zarya (built 2024), recently crossed the Red Sea on its way to Asia. Aside from those Russia-linked transits, ICIS has recorded only one other LNG voyage through the Red Sea this year: in February, Oman LNG sent a single cargo to Turkey via the route.

Following the announcement of the Gaza peace plan and early indications that Houthi attacks at the Bab al-Mandab Strait may be easing, some market participants wondered whether LNG traffic through the region might begin to recover.

However, Mr Froley said there has been “no real change yet” in operators’ sentiment. “They do not have an urgent need to use the route at the moment. I think they want to see how things evolve for other shipping sectors before changing their patterns,” he noted.

Longer routes, sufficient fleet capacity

In a recent social media post, Mr Froley observed that LNG carriers travelling from the United States to Asia are now routinely sailing around the Cape of Good Hope. Similarly, LNG carriers heading from the Middle East (Qatar) to Europe also continue to take the longer route around Africa.

While these diversions add distance compared with the Red Sea passage, the global LNG fleet has been able to absorb the extra sailing time. According to Mr Froley, the market has been well supplied with shipping capacity this year due to a large number of new vessels entering service ahead of upcoming production increases.