Maritime stakeholders weigh in on potential Red Sea reopening during Gaza ceasefire

Gaza ceasefire and Houthi attacks on shipping

In a speech on 16 January, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi declared “Military operations will continue in support of the Palestinian people if the Israeli enemy continues its massacres of genocide and escalation before the agreement is implemented,” according to maritime security firm Ambrey.

Numbers differ, but an analysis by shipbroker Howe Robinson Partners revealed that, since the beginning of the Houthi-led campaign in late 2023, there have been more than 100 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels. These attacks peaked in Q1 2024 with 36 incidents, and gradually declined to eight and seven incidents in the third and fourth quarters of the year, respectively.

Industry sentiment: returning to the Red Sea is a long-term process

As developments unfold, shipowners, managers and key industry stakeholders are cautiously looking toward the potential reopening of the Red Sea. According to Ambrey, “Provided the ceasefire holds, and the Houthis signal their intent to honour it, the return of shipping to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will occur gradually.”

“This is a political matter, but in my opinion, the Houthis have a source of power they are unlikely to relinquish easily, even with a peace deal,” chief executive of pool operator and ship manager Heidmar, Pankaj Khanna, told Riviera. He believes it will take some diplomatic maneuvering that needs time. “In short, I don’t see the Red Sea reopening in the short term,” he concluded.

Chief administrative officer of US-listed Euroseas and Eurodry, Symeon Pariaros, also shared his uncertainty. He stated, “It’s difficult to predict when vessels will be able to transit the Red Sea again, as the Houthis remain a threat.” He noted, “Everyone is waiting to see how the situation will evolve.”

Mr Pariaros further emphasised it would likely take months before any procedures are put in place for reopening. “It took about a year to adjust itineraries through the Cape of Good Hope, so I imagine it will take several months to return to normal operations,” the Greek shipping executive added.

Howe Robinson Partners head of dry bulk research Bilal Muftuoglu echoed similar sentiments. “Mainstream owners who have been avoiding the Red Sea will likely want to see a sustained period of safe transits – perhaps several weeks to months – without any attacks on commercial vessels,” he explained. He also pointed out the number of attacks has been declining since Q4 2024.

“Owners would also want assurances from their countries’ navies, or at least from the US and UK navies, that it is now safer for commercial vessels to transit Bab el-Mandeb,” Mr Muftuoglu concluded.

International Maritime Organization figures show no attacks have taken place since November 2024. 

In a recent press briefing, IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez said efforts are ongoing to secure the release of Galaxy Leader and its 25-person crew, who remain detained since the ship was taken hostage in a Houthi raid in November 2023. 

As his first mission of the year, the secretary-general said he will be in Egypt to open the IMO Regional Presence Office in Alexandria, to co-ordinate technical assistance in the region to support maritime safety, security and environmental protection.

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