IMO Net Zero Framework fund could reach US$100Bn

The US$100Bn figure refers to the fleet included in Seascape’s dataset of just over 30,000 ships, covering all major shipping segments.

According to MSI, this future cost represents not only a burden but also an opportunity, potentially creating an annual market directed towards drop-in biofuels and other low-carbon bunker alternatives.

Mr Fray explained the Seascape platform has been in development for two years, driven by what he described as customer demand for better modelling of fleet behaviour. “Inefficiencies and diversions are impacting earnings and values far beyond historical norms,” he said.

Seascape generates hourly vessel activity data, providing estimates of emissions, fuel consumption, port stays and anchorage durations. It also uses machine learning techniques to estimate ship movements during periods when AIS signals are unavailable.

Although MSI’s projection is based on its own fleet sample and forecasts, it suggests IMO’s Net Zero Framework could create one of the largest regulatory compliance markets ever seen in the maritime sector.

From a different perspective, it frames the Framework not simply as a burden but as a mechanism capable of steering the sector towards alternative fuels through financial pressure.

The full extent of IMO fund’s use remains to be formalised, but current IMO drafts indicate the revenue will support low- and zero-carbon shipping, capacity building in developing countries, and measures to address the potential negative impacts on small island and least developed states.

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