North American LNG terminals are on track to double export capacity by 2028, despite regulatory hurdles and operational delays
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is expected to more than double by 2028, reinforcing the region’s critical role in global energy markets.
The current export capacity of 11.4Bn cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), which equates to approximately 85M tonnes per annum (mta), is projected to reach 24.3 Bcf/d, or roughly 181.00 mta over the next several years. This growth is fuelled by expansions at existing terminals, new projects and increasing global demand for North American LNG, particularly in Europe and Asia.
However, regulatory hurdles and operational delays are tempering the pace of some developments.
Sabine Pass, operated by Cheniere Energy, remains a cornerstone of US LNG exports with a capacity of 30.00 mta. The terminal recently completed Train 6, allowing it to load its 3,000th cargo in 2023.
Further expansions are in progress through the Sabine Pass Stage 5 Expansion Project, which is expected to add another 20.00 mta. This project, currently in the permitting phase, will feature additional large-scale liquefaction trains and storage tanks.
Cheniere chief executive Jack Fusco said, “We look forward to growing those capabilities through the SPL Expansion Project” while reaffirming the company’s disciplined approach to development.
Corpus Christi, also operated by Cheniere, is undergoing its own expansion. The Corpus Christi terminal has a current capacity of 13.50 mta, and the ongoing Stage 3 project aims to add an additional 10 mta upon completion. This expansion includes seven mid-scale liquefaction trains, with construction reported to be 44.1% complete by Q3 2023.
Cove Point, managed by Dominion Energy, continues to operate at 5.25 mta. While smaller than other terminals, Cove Point plays a key role in exporting LNG under long-term contracts with Japanese and Indian buyers.
The Cameron LNG terminal, operated by Sempra Energy, is expanding its capacity by 6.75 mta with the Phase 2 project, bringing the total capacity to 18.75 mta. The final investment decision (FID) for Phase 2 is expected in 2024, and once complete, Cameron LNG will enhance its contribution to global LNG supply.
Elba Island, operated by Kinder Morgan, continues to export LNG with a capacity of 2.50 mta, though no major expansions are planned.
Freeport LNG, with its capacity of 15.00 mta, has fully resumed operations after Hurricane Ida, remaining one of the largest US LNG exporters.
Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass terminal, with a capacity of 10.00 mta, has ramped up operations following its first LNG cargo earlier in 2023.
The company is also developing the Plaquemines LNG terminal, which, upon completion, will add up to 20.00 mta to the US LNG export capacity. Plaquemines is expected to make further progress following its FID.
Meanwhile, Golden Pass, a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, is one of the most anticipated US LNG projects. The terminal is now seeking a three-year extension, pushing the completion deadline to 30 November 2029. First LNG is expected between the end of 2025 and early 2026, slightly delaying its original timeline.
In Mexico, Sempra Energy’s Energia Costa Azul project is progressing, with operations expected to commence by 2025, adding 2.50 mta of export capacity. This will mark Mexico’s first LNG export terminal, providing an important new source of supply for global markets.
New Fortress Energy has received non-free trade agreement approval from the US Department of Energy for its FAST LNG export facility in Altamira, Mexico. However, the approval is only valid until August 2029. The Altamira project is part of a growing trend of floating LNG facilities aiming to meet the increasing demand for flexible LNG production.
In Canada, Shell has announced it has begun introducing gas to its LNG Canada facility at Kitimat. Commissioning cargoes are expected to commence in mid-2025, marking a major milestone for this 14.00-mta project. LNG Canada is poised to become one of the largest LNG terminals in North America, with a significant role in Canada’s entry into the global LNG export market.
Another noteworthy project in Mexico is the planned Saguero LNG facility, developed by Mexico Pacific. The company recently signed a 20-year supply agreement with Posco of Korea for 0.70 mta of LNG, demonstrating the growing interest in Mexican LNG exports. Mexico Pacific’s project is still in the development phase, but this agreement signals its future role in the global LNG supply chain.
Additionally, Amigo LNG has signed a Heads of Agreement with OQ Trading of Oman for the supply of LNG from its planned Sonoro facility in Mexico. Although details on capacity and timelines remain limited, the agreement highlights Mexico’s potential to increase its LNG export capacity in the coming years.
The Driftwood LNG project, operated by Tellurian, is one of the largest planned terminals in North America, with a projected capacity of 27.60 mta. The project is awaiting FID, but upon completion, it will significantly enhance the US’s LNG export capabilities.
Similarly, Lake Charles LNG, with a planned capacity of 16.45 mta, is awaiting regulatory approvals before proceeding to full-scale development.
Woodfibre LNG, located in British Columbia, is on track for completion by 2027 with a capacity of 2.10 mta. The terminal’s focus on using hydroelectric power makes it a sustainable addition to Canada’s LNG infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Port Arthur LNG, another Sempra project, is advancing towards FID, with an expected capacity of 13.50 mta.
Cedar LNG, backed by the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corp, is under regulatory review and will be Canada’s first majority-Indigenous-owned LNG terminal. The terminal, which will have a capacity of 3.00 mta, is expected to begin operations by 2027.
Despite regulatory delays, including the Biden administration’s moratorium on new LNG export licences, and the environmental scrutiny faced by some projects, North American LNG terminals are poised for record growth. The ongoing developments will support global energy security while ensuring the region’s role as a major LNG supplier.
This robust pipeline of projects, once completed, will significantly enhance the region’s capacity to meet growing demand in key markets like Europe and Asia.
The enhancement of LNG exports will be a key part of the forthcoming LNG Shipping & Terminals Conference in November 2024. Register your interest here.
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