Shipping in confusion over tariff uncertainty as US-China trade war intensifies 

As of the morning of 10 April, the new US administration had suspended most “reciprocal tariffs” for its global trading partners, while retaining a 10% levy. However, the US-China trade war remains in full force, with Chinese exports to the US now facing 125% tariffs and American exports to China taxed at 84%.

Banchero Costa head of research Ralph Leszczynski told Riviera this uncertainty and flip-flopping is very disruptive for exporters, importers, shippers and everyone involved in trade and logistics. “It will have a negative impact on the economy and trade volumes as it makes it impossible to plan or budget anything in advance”.

Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen echoed this sentiment in a social media post, saying, “This creates exactly the kind of stop-and-go fluctuations which tend to be prone to create bottlenecks in the supply chain. The only saving grace is the disruption has only lasted about a week, and hence the impact should in the main be manageable, but some bottleneck issues are likely.”

Mr Leszczynski also noted if the goal of the tariffs was to convince manufacturers to move production back from Asia to the US – a process that is long, costly and disruptive – then the abrupt reversal of such decisions within 24 hours sends the wrong message.

Consumers to hurt

With the focus now shifting to the escalating US-China trade war, the shipping industry is bracing for impacts, particularly in the container and LPG carrier sectors.

Mr Leszczynski pointed out Chinese exports to the US are almost entirely manufactured goods shipped in containers. With 125% tariffs now in place, this trade is expected to decline sharply. “This is a negative for the container shipping sector, but even more so for US consumers,” he stressed. Roughly two-thirds of the products sold in major US retail chains are made in China, so we can expect upward pressure on inflation, Mr Leszczynski added.

“There is no way the US can abruptly stop importing goods from China. Relocating production elsewhere would take years,” he added.

LPG trade in jeopardy

On the flip side, Mr Leszczynski believes China has more flexibility in cutting imports from the US, particularly in the energy sector.  China sources 2.8% of its crude oil, 5.7% of its LNG, 2.8% of its coal, and a significant 56.4% of its LPG imports from the US.

"Except for LPG, it should not be too difficult or disruptive for China to halt all energy imports from the USA,” Mr Leszczynski said.

Grain trade faces uncertainty

Turning to the bulk carrier market, the US accounts for 2.3% of China’s total dry bulk imports, but holds a notable 22% share of the soya bean mix. Mr Leszczynski noted though that this trade has been on a declining trend in recent years, and the current period typically sees seasonally low volumes of US soya bean shipments.

According to Signal Ocean, China receives 52.8% of US grain exports to the Far East, followed by Japan and South Korea. These shipments, mainly soya beans, corn, and wheat, are heavily reliant on Panamax and Supramax vessels.

Signal Ocean data also revealed US grain shipments to Far East destinations fell by 18.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025. "This downward trend is likely to accelerate as the newly imposed tariffs deter Chinese buyers, potentially redirecting volumes to alternative markets such as southeast Asia," said Signal Ocean market analyst Maria Bertzeletou.