Shipping demand to redistribute in 'transitional' 2026 after record global trade in 2025

UNCTAD’s latest report reveals that global trade will surpass US$35.0Trn this year for the first time, an increase of roughly US$2.2Trn, or 7.0%, compared with 2024. Trade in goods will account for approximately US$1.5Trn of that rise, while services are set to grow by around US$750Bn, nearly 9.0%.

Commenting on the report, Intermodal head of research Yiannis Parganas told Riviera that the outperformance of East Asia, Africa and South–South corridors stood out as the driving force behind 2025’s cargo flows. More specifically, East Asia’s intra-regional trade rose 10% over the past year, while Africa posted broad import and export gains.

“These patterns continue to redraw global routeing, tilting growth toward shorter-haul, intra-regional networks,” Mr Parganas highlighted.

However, he added the surge in agricultural shipments and strong manufacturing – particularly iron and steel, up 40% on a trailing four quarters (T4Q) basis – still provides meaningful support for longhaul trade.

Slowing end to the year

Despite the expected trade record, Mr Parganas noted the slowdown through Q3 and into Q4 signals a freight market entering a more fragile phase.

UNCTAD data shows that goods growth slowed to 1.8% in Q3, down from 3.6% in the previous quarter, with Q4 predicted at just 0.6%. Similarly, services growth eased to 4.0% in Q3 from 4.9% in Q2, with a forecast of 2.2% in Q4.

“Goods growth has slowed, and while services remain resilient, the easing of trade inflation suggests value expansion is increasingly volume-driven,” Mr Parganas said.

“For shipping, that shift matters: softer pricing power in commodities, particularly mineral fuels, which show both quarterly and T4Q declines, reduces tonne-mile demand at a time when fleet capacity additions remain elevated,” he added.

Transition in 2026

Looking ahead, UNCTAD expects momentum to weaken in 2026. Slower global growth, rising debt, higher trade costs, and ongoing uncertainty are likely to weigh on trade flows.

Mr Parganas believes 2026 will mark a transition year. “Geopolitical fragmentation and rising trade costs will cap upside, but the structural resilience shown by developing economies suggests shipping demand will not collapse. Instead, it will redistribute, rewarding operators positioned on emerging South-South and East-West manufacturing lanes,” he explained.

Eyes on China

Meanwhile, one of the main drivers of global trade, China, posted a surplus of almost US$1.1Trn from January to November 2025, according to the latest customs data – a record high for any single year.

UNCTAD reported that China’s goods surplus narrowed in Q3 2025, but remained about US$30Bn higher than the same period in 2024.

Overall, Chinese exports rose 5.9% year-on-year in November in US dollar terms, rebounding from a 1.1% contraction in October, while imports grew 1.9%, up from 1.0% the previous month.

A notable trend in the data is that shipments to the US dropped nearly 29.0% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines. Conversely, Beijing has shifted exports to other destinations, including southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and the European Union.

In shipping terms, shipbroker Banchero Costa noted in a recent report that Chinese steel product exports rose 6.1% from January to October 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, citing customs data, while oil product shipments fell 3.3%.

On the import side, bauxite and alumina stood out with 30% year-on-year growth, the highest among all commodities. Increases were also recorded for iron ore, soya beans, sugar and crude oil.

Double-digit declines were posted for grains (corn, wheat, barley, sorghum), oil products, LNG, steel products, and thermal and coking coal.