Signal Ocean flags mixed dry bulk flows in 2025

Coal flows moved in the opposite direction: Signal Ocean recorded a 3% fall in 2025 seaborne coal flows to 1.4Bn tonnes, with Indonesia at 37% of origin volumes and China’s receiver share easing to 29% from 31% in 2024.

Thermal coal comprised “around 77%” of seaborne coal tonnage and Signal reported that China imported “11% less seaborne thermal coal in 2025” than the prior year, attributing this partly due to domestic production that was “3% ahead” year-on-year, and partly to thermal power output being “1% lower” while total electricity production rose by 2%.

Bauxite was the strongest growth story in the review.

Signal Ocean recorded an 18% rise in seaborne bauxite flows to 257M tonnes, with Guinea’s share rising to 68% and China taking 85% of seaborne imports.

It expected “continued strong flows of bauxite to China through the start of 2026,” while flagging that China’s aluminium production cap “provides a ceiling for bauxite demand growth.”

Steel flows increased by 4% to 233M tonnes, with Signal Ocean stating that China’s share of steel exports “surged in 2025, reaching 39%, up from 33% in 2024,” aligning this with weaker domestic demand.

It added that steel products were carried “overwhelmingly by Supramax vessels, 47% since 2022,” and suggested route-specific effects rather than a broad market shift.

The report concluded, “As a result, freight rates in 2026 are expected to come under pressure.”

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