Tanker earnings hit multi-year highs

Tanker markets have regained momentum, with average weighted earnings rising to US$40,000 per day in late September – on a par with the peak 2022–24 period and 62% above the 10-year norm, reports Clarkson Research Services in its latest issue of Oil Tanker Trade Outlook.

VLCC returns led the advance, reaching around US$100,000 per day, their strongest level since March 2023, while Suezmax rates have consistently exceeded US$60,000 per day.

Crude tanker segments have benefited from higher OPEC+ volumes, firmer Chinese import demand, expanded US–Asia longhaul voyages and restrained fleet growth, boosting returns to roughly US$70,000 per day by month-end and lifting the 2025 year-to-date average close to the full-year 2024 figure of US$40,000 per day.

Product tankers remain resilient with rates hovering near US$20,000 per day – below the 2022–24 peak of US$30,000 but well above long-term benchmarks – underscoring a balanced, segment-specific momentum ahead of the market’s seasonally stronger phase.

Crude tonnage supply is forecast to grow by 0.6% in 2025, versus demand growth of 1.4%, a backdrop that should support earnings.

This is underpinned by an OPEC+ production boost of 140,000 barrels per day (b/d) in October and the unwinding of 2.2M b/d of cuts from April to September.

Chinese seaborne imports rose 2.2% year-on-year in January–August – averaging 10.2M b/d – as lower oil prices spurred inventory builds of about 1M b/d.

Higher US–Asia longhaul voyages have added to tonne-mile demand, and VLCC deadweight-mile demand is projected to expand by around 3% this year amid flat fleet growth.