Offshore wind in 2025: few bright spots as industry addresses multiple challenges

Analysts suggest the global wind energy market is set to grow significantly in the next 5-10 years, with China accounting for much growth in capacity, but little if any growth in the offshore wind sector will take place in the US as a result of the Trump administration’s effort to kill the industry there. China’s dominance in the wind industry is becoming more pronounced, and as other established markets struggle with policy uncertainty and economic headwinds, unequalled growth in China will reshape the industry landscape.

Of offshore wind projects being developed, two thirds of them are in China. By 2030, Rystad Energy forecasts China’s offshore wind projects will account for 45% of the world’s cumulative capacity, making it difficult for the US market to compete in the long term, regardless of policy reversals.

In contrast, in the US, renewable energy investment plunged around 36% year-on-year in 2025. At the same time, European companies began redirecting capital away from the US after stop-work orders were issued for Ørsted’s Rhode Island and Equinor’s New York developments. Since then, other US projects have come under scrutiny, most recently Iberdrola’s New England Wind offshore wind project off the coast of Massachusetts.

Troubled offshore wind developer Ørsted to shed a quarter of its workforce

In October 2025, Ørsted – the world’s leading developer of offshore wind energy – confirmed plans to reduce its headcount by approximately 2,000 personnel. Of all of the world’s leading developers, the company has been the worst hit by the Trump administration’s attack on the industry and by the downturn in the market.

The troubled wind energy developer sacked chief executive Mads Nipper in early 2025, after a tumultuous period that saw it hit by problems in major markets – particularly the US – as it was forced into a series of write-downs.

Rasmus Errboe, the company’s former deputy chief executive and chief commercial officer was appointed to replace Mr Nipper and, shortly afterwards, the company’s board of directors approved significant adjustments to its business plan, prioritising only the most value-accretive growth opportunities. A rights issue helped shore up its finances and helped safeguard its credit rating, and as part of its updated strategy, Ørsted sharpened its geographical and technological focus and will primarily be directing it towards offshore wind in Europe and in select markets in the Asia Pacific region.

CEO hails ‘energy of tomorrow’ as construction commences of Poland’s first offshore windfarm

Amid widespread gloom in the offshore wind sector, Poland has emerged as one of the few bright spots – no bad feat for a country that was once so heavily dependent on coal.

Early in 2025, a fleet of specialised vessels mobilised to begin installing the foundations for Poland’s first project, the 1.2-GW Baltic Power windfarm, which is due to commence operations in 2026. The start of construction of the Baltic Power windfarm came days after Ørsted and PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna took a final investment decision for another large Polish offshore windfarm, the 1.5-GW Baltica 2 project.

Offshore wind is a key part of ORLEN Group’s strategy, which targets the deployment of more than 4 GW of installed offshore wind capacity in the Baltic. The company has also committed to developing three more offshore windfarms, for which it has already secured licences.

Speaking at the time that construction got underway, ORLEN president and chief executive Ireneusz Fąfara described offshore wind as “a clean, stable and secure form of power that will drive Poland’s economy forward.” He said it also creates opportunities for Polish businesses to grow. “This is the energy of tomorrow – starting today,” he said.

There was more good news from Poland in December, when Ocean Winds, the 50-50 joint venture between EDP Renewables and Engie, secured around €2.0Bn (US$2.3Bn) in project finance and reached financial close for its first offshore windfarm in the Baltic, BC-Wind. Not long afterwards, the industry as a whole received a significant boost in the form of a highly successful first auction for offshore wind capacity in Poland that saw 3.4 GW of capacity awarded.

Failed German offshore wind auction ’shows politicians must finally act’

Industry bodies have been warning Germany’s Federal government that its auction scheme wasn’t fit for purpose for a long time. That it really wasn’t became clear to everyone when, as predicted, an auction for two sites, N-10.1 and N-10.2, both in the North Sea, failed to attract any bids.

Industry associations said the failed auction was a wake-up call for the German government. They said negative bidding adds costs that make offshore wind more expensive and reduces the number of companies willing to participate in auctions. It is time to amend the auctions, they said, urging the German government to switch to the use of two-sided Contracts for Difference (CfDs).

In an analysis of why the German auction and auctions in other countries failed in 2025, WindEurope said the reason was the use of negative bidding, the idea that developers should pay for the right to build windfarms. This has undermined investment in offshore wind.

Denmark failed to attract any bids in its 2024 offshore wind auction due to negative bidding and quickly announced that an upcoming tender for three sites with a total capacity of 3 GW will use CfDs. In the Netherlands the government proposed a new Action Plan for Offshore Wind, waving goodbye to negative bidding for offshore wind and proposing the use of CfDs. In early December, the German government confirmed it would reduce the scale – but not postpone – the auctions due to take place in 2026, offering between 2.5 GW and 5.0 GW of capacity, rather than the previously-planned 6.0 GW. In doing so, it acknowledged a "fundamental examination of framework conditions" is required, but opted to proceed with auctions as planned in 2026, rather than wait until legislation to approve the use of CfDs is introduced, to avoid a potential project standstill.

China’s Ming Yang planning massive 50-MW floating offshore wind turbine

What has been described as a "technological rat race" has led to ever-larger offshore wind turbines being developed. In Europe, for the time being, European models continue to hold sway. In late 2025, Siemens Gamesa confirmed that it is its long-term aim is to commercialise the 21.5-MW turbine it has been developing, but it is in China that the pace of technological development has really taken off.

In contrast to calls in Europe for standardisation and a focus on a class of wind turbines with which the supply chain can easily work, Chinese manufacturers continue to unveil ever-larger turbines. In 2025, this process culminated in Ming Yang Smart Energy unveiling the design of what would be by some margin the world’s largest single-unit offshore wind turbine. Based on the design of its existing ‘twin-head’ design, the new unit would have a capacity of 50 MW, more than twice that of the largest offshore wind turbines being developed elsewhere.

The huge floating wind turbine was unveiled at the China Wind Power 2025 conference and exhibition in Beijing. The new unit will use two 25-MW wind turbines supported by a V-shaped tower. The new design will reportedly have a rotor diameter of 290 m. It is derived from Ming Yang’s dual-rotor OceanX floater, which has two 8.3-MW MySE8.3-180 turbines installed and a total capacity of 16.6 MW, which entered into operation in late 2024.

The Chinese wind turbine manufacturer recently confirmed a plan to build what would be Britain’s largest wind turbine manufacturing facility. That plan is still subject to approval from the UK government, and is an integral part of a wider pan-European strategy Ming Yang Smart Energy is developing, with other locations being explored, that could be the prelude to Chinese manufacturers one day assuming a dominant position in Europe.