Offshore windfarms could cover 11% of North Sea by 2050, study claims 

Dr Waldman continued, “To build this scenario, we brought together a wide range of international marine and energy datasets, from national targets and spatial plans to seabed depths, wind and wave records, existing infrastructure and projected turbine technologies, to create a realistic picture of what current ambitions might mean in practice.

“When placing our projected future windfarms, we tried to avoid shipping lanes, environmentally protected areas, existing seabed cables and pipelines, and more. What this shows is the scale of activity if offshore wind grows as promised, and the practical considerations that come with that.” 

The research was carried out with colleagues at the University of Hull and the University of St Andrews. It began as a master’s dissertation by former student Peter Munro, who created the first version of the wind farm and turbine layouts while studying at Hull. A 2024 update was completed by Conor Gilmour, who worked as a research assistant at the University of St Andrews before moving into industry. Further expertise came from Professor Rodney M Forster at Hull and Dr Debbie J F Russell at the University of St Andrews. The work was, in part funded by the NERC INSITE as part of the EcoSTAR project. 

EcoSTAR project lead Debbie Russell said, “There is an urgent need to predict the potential impact of development at this scale. This layer represents a feasible layout that can be used for such scenario testing. We believe it is one of the most detailed resources available for looking at how offshore wind could develop across the North Sea. Not only does our research show this plausible scenario, but it also highlights some new and existing challenges that we may face. 

“Below the surface, turbines sit within busy and sensitive marine environments, which affects how other sea users, especially fishers, can operate, because many fishing methods depend on the seabed as well as the surface. Above the surface, large wind farms create long atmospheric wakes. A single turbine slows the air behind it, but very big farms can cast wakes stretching 40 kilometres or more, meaning one project can influence another even across national borders. We are already seeing early signs of developers reporting energy losses due to neighbouring wakes, and there are ecological considerations too as we look at how these structures alter marine systems. As the sector expands, understanding these interactions clearly becomes essential.” 

Professor Rodney Forster from the Hull Marine Laboratory at the University of Hull said, “The North Sea supports fragile marine ecosystems and coastal communities dependent on logistics, fishing and energy industries. It is clear that coming decades will see a significant increase in offshore wind developments. As these expand we need to understand possible impacts on those diverse ecosystems and the implications for wider marine industries.

“The next steps are to identify other uses of the sea that can be placed alongside or within operational windfarms. In separate research we have identified that the best conditions for growing mussels in aquaculture farms happens to coincide with the best sites for offshore wind. Our work with the University of St Andrews and Heriot-Watt University will help us to manage our interactions with the sea to better support those ecosystems and the communities that depend on them.”