100 days after the last Houthi attack, Suez Canal traffic still 60% lower than 2023 

With Houthi forces attacking commercial vessels around 100 times since November 2023, quarterly deadweight tonne (dwt) capacity transiting the Suez Canal has dropped by between 57%-64% in the two years that have followed, according to a new analysis from BIMCO.

And the drop in vessel traffic on the global shipping shortcut has persisted more than three months after the last time Houthi forces attacked a commercial vessel.

“100 days ago, on 29 September, Minervagracht was to become the last ship to be attacked by the Houthis, at least for now. Forty-three days later, the Houthis declared an end to their attacks on ships. Despite this, traffic through the Suez Canal [has] not significantly increased, and in the first week of 2026, it remained 60% below the corresponding week in 2023, before ships started diverting around the Cape of Good Hope,” BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said.

“During 2025, Suez Canal dwt transits have been 57%-64% lower than in 2023. In the fourth quarter, transits by bulkers, container ships, crude and product tankers were respectively 55%, 86%, 32% and 19% lower than in 2023,” he said.

Throughout 2025, the reduction in Suez Canal transits has been stable for most shipping sectors, with one notable exception, according to BIMCO. Product tankers have increasingly sailed via the Suez Canal to take advantage of increasing freight rate premiums.

"In the fourth quarter of 2025, transits were therefore only 19% lower than in 2023 compared with a 45% reduction in transits during 2024," Mr Rasmussen said.

According to the analyst, nearly all container ships have avoided the Suez Canal since the Houthi attacks began, but some of these lines have been tentatively taking test passages through the Suez, of late. CMA CGM recently announced that its MEDEX and INDAMEX services would return to Suez Canal routeings in January 2026. And on 19 December 2025, Maersk Sebarok became the first Maersk ship to transit the canal since early 2024. Maersk has not announced any further transits, but has stated that “assuming that security thresholds continue to be met, we are considering continuing our stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation along the East-West corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.”

"While the safety of crew, ship and cargo remains paramount, recent reductions in Red Sea war risk premiums may encourage more ships to revert to Suez Canal routeings. In early December, S&P Global reported that premiums had fallen to 0.2% of hull values, the lowest since November 2023 and down from 0.5% before the Israel-Hamas ceasefire," Mr Rasmussen said.

“A normalisation of ship transits now appears more likely than at any point during the last two years, but it remains unknown if, or how fast, this may happen. A return to the Suez Canal would reduce shipping companies’ costs significantly but also hurt ship demand. A full normalisation is estimated to reduce container ship demand by approximately 10% while other sectors could see 2%-3% reductions,” said Mr Rasmussen.