Bulker market weighs war impact as orderbook hits 10-year high, China's demand in focus

Shipbroker Howe Robinson Partners noted at its annual seminar held on 6 March in London that around 280 bulk carriers are currently trapped inside the Arabian Gulf, with a further 100 vessels anchored outside. These figures represent roughly 3.6% of the global Panamax fleet, 3% of active Supramaxes, and 2.2% of Handysize bulk carriers.

The Arabian Gulf seaborne dry bulk trade accounted for around 4.3% of total global trade in 2025, with inbound flows representing 2.6% of global tonne-miles and outbound shipments 1.7%.

Howe Robinson managing partner for dry bulk and projects Guy Hindley noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains a key gateway for seaborne fertiliser products and inputs. The Arabian Gulf accounts for 72% of global limestone exports and 57% of sulphur shipments, while the region also represents 5% of global grain imports and 2% of iron ore flows.

Capesize contracting picks up as orderbook hits 10-year high

One of the key takeaways from the seminar was the positive momentum in the Capesize segment, which has supported increased ordering activity in recent months, according to Howe Robinson dry bulk projects analyst Janina Lam. Riviera has already reported that several owners are ordering large bulk carriers, with additional projects reportedly underway.

Data presented showed that the Capesize orderbook expanded by 24% in dwt terms between January and March 2026.

Deliveries in the segment are expected to rise to 44 vessels (8.8M dwt) in 2026, up from 36 vessels (7.2M dwt) delivered last year. Further projections estimate deliveries will climb to 79 vessels (15.6M dwt) in 2027 and 82 vessels (16.9M dwt) in 2028.

Overall, the dry bulk orderbook has reached a 10-year high, with 1,618 vessels totalling 142.2M dwt currently on order. This is despite contracting in 2025 remaining below the levels seen in 2023 and 2024. The orderbook now represents approximately 13.3% of the active fleet.

Meanwhile, vessels aged 20 to over 30 years make up 127.2M dwt of capacity. However, demolition activity has remained limited, as owners are mostly opting to continue operating their older vessels or sell them for further trading rather than sending them for recycling.

Overall, the global dry bulk fleet is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, marking the fastest annual growth since 2020. The Supramax/Ultramax segment is projected to see the largest increase at 4.7%, followed by Panamax/Kamsarmax vessels (+4.2%), Handysize (+3.2%), and VLOC/Capesize vessels (+2.4%).

China’s demand in focus

Turning to demand fundamentals, Howe Robinson predicts dry bulk trade growth of 1.6% in 2026, roughly matching last year’s 1.8% increase but falling short of the 3.6% growth seen in 2024.

Iron ore demand, which accounts for approximately 28% of total dry bulk trade, is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, slightly below last year’s 2.1% growth.

Coal, the second-largest commodity with a 24% share, is projected to decline by 1.6%, an improvement over the 4.3% downturn recorded in 2025.

The grain trade is expected to rebound, growing 4% this year after last year’s decline. Meanwhile, bauxite shipments are forecasted to continue their strong growth, expanding 8.7%, though this is less than the 18.7% surge recorded in 2025.

A key element highlighted in the presentation was China’s role in global tonne-mile demand. Howe Robinson noted that China’s contribution has begun to weaken, while India and Southeast Asia are gaining importance.

Data shows that China’s share of annual dry bulk trade tonne-mile growth fell significantly between 2023 and 2025, and last year accounted for around 34% of the global increase.

However, Howe Robinson Partners head of dry bulk research Bilal Muftuoglu, told Riviera that demand is expected to recover in 2026, supported by increased shipments of Brazilian iron ore, Guinean iron ore, and bauxite exports to China.

The Capesize sector is projected to record tonne-mile growth of 2.7% this year, slightly outpacing the expected fleet growth of 2.4%. Iron ore accounts for more than 70% of tonne-mile demand, followed by bauxite (16.6%) and coal (9.2%).

Overall, the brokerage firm expects the dry bulk market to peak in Q2 2026, based on current market fundamentals.