Capacity–demand divergence will drive LNG shipping transformation

A projection of 270bn m³ of liquefaction capacity by 2030 is prompting shipowners to order newbuild LNG carriers, rethink trade lanes and adjust charter structures.

The International Gas Union’s 2025 Global Gas Report projects that 270bn m³ of liquefaction capacity is approved or under construction for commissioning by 2030, even as actual global gas demand growth since 2015 has averaged 1.7% annually – outpacing the 1.3% – 1.5% projected by leading scenario pathways. This divergence between capacity build-out and forecast demand will force a transformation in LNG shipping, with implications for vessel ordering, routing strategies and commercial structures through to the end of the decade.  

Forecast landscape and capacity pipeline 
Approved projects in the United States, Qatar and Australia will collectively add around 270Bn m³ of capacity by 2030, equivalent to the output of over 50, 175,000-m³ carriers per year. In the United States alone, developments such as Cameron LNG Train 4 and Port Arthur 2 will progressively come online between 2026 and 2029, contributing roughly 40Bn m³ of incremental throughput. Qatar’s North Field South expansion is scheduled to deliver 32Bn m³ by 2027, while Australia’s Scarborough and Browse fields will add a further 28Bn m³ by 2028. 

Demand projections diverge markedly. The IEA’s Stated Policies and Announced Pledges scenarios envisage gas consumption rising by 1.3% and 1.5% annually to 2030 respectively, reaching 3,700 – 3,800Bn m³. A simple historical trendline – excluding the volatility of 2020–21–suggests growth of 1.8%, which would take demand towards 3,900Bn m³ by 2030. If realised, this higher-growth case would absorb much of the new liquefaction capacity, but any slip towards the lower scenarios could yield a surplus, pressuring freight markets and charter rates. 

Fleet composition and newbuilding imperatives  
The report’s pre-final investment decision outlook for United States projects indicates cumulative output moving towards 100Bn cbm by 2050, with mid-scale schemes accounting for nearly 60% of total planned capacity. The commissioning schedules of these projects imply a sustained order run-rate of 20 – 30 LNG carriers per year from 2025 to 2030. This requirement will be split between large tonnage – 180,000-m³ Q-Flex and Q-Max types – for long-haul trades, and smaller 100,000-m³ vessels to serve flexible, short-haul markets such as small-scale distribution and bunkering.  

Regulatory drivers further shape newbuild specifications. IMO’s 2030 carbon-intensity targets will compel dual-fuel propulsion systems, battery-hybrid auxiliary power and hull optimisations. Shipowners placing orders in 2025–26 must balance the economies of scale offered by mega-vessels against the versatility and emission compliance of mid-scale designs.