Chinese Capesize orders surge amid global slowdown driven by national fleet strategy

BRS Shipbrokers’ latest weekly report shows that while Chinese shipping companies’ orders from January to July 2025 fell by almost 50% year-on-year, they still rank as the world’s top ordering nation.

“Rather than reflecting the recent USTR proposals, this decline reflects the exceptional number of orders placed by Chinese owners last year,” BRS noted.

Despite the overall drop, Chinese Capesize contracts rose around 37% year-on-year, with 30 vessels ordered. BRS linked this growth to the National Cargo, National Fleet strategy launched in 2024 by COSCO, which is pushing forward an ambitious plan to build 100 vessels.

A prominent example is COSCO’s recent 10-Newcastlemax order, split between COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Zhoushan and Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding. Qingdao Beihai has also secured a separate 10-VLOC order from state-owned Shandong Shipping.

Greek orders slide

Greek shipowners – long seen as a bellwether for the market – have sharply reduced contracting this year and have dropped out of the top five ordering nations.

“This share dropped from second place in 2024 to sixth this year, with only one Kamsarmax and two Handymax orders placed,” BRS said.

Both China and Greece recorded significant contractions in Panamax and Supramax orders.

Global activity hits decade low

Worldwide, dry bulk orders from January to July 2025 fell 63% year-on-year, with just 165 vessels contracted, totalling 15.5M dwt. Supramaxes accounted for 55% of orders, Capesizes for 23%, and combined Panamax and Handysize to 11%.

Measured by either dwt or vessel count, 2025’s order volume is on track to be the lowest in the past decade – far below the 10-year average of 485 vessels. This stands in stark contrast to the record peak in 2024, when annual orders reached 63.9M dwt, the highest in 10 years.

BRS attributed the slump to persistently high prices, regulatory and technological uncertainty, and geopolitical and trade policy shocks.