Does the current chaos create opportunities for LNG shipping?

The Middle East Conflict has thrown the LNG market into pure chaos. The US and Israel’s surprise attack on Iran was supposed to be short, destructive, and force the Iranian Government to capitulate to their terms quickly.

But as is often the case with wars, the Middle East Conflict has evolved unpredictably; commercial shipping is under attack, and the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for weeks now.

The question to ask is: “Is this chaos and unrest in the LNG market good or bad for LNG shipping?” Our first reaction is to think that this will be a disaster. After all, trade in the Persian Gulf has come to a halt, Qatar and others have stopped production, shipping routes have been disrupted, many LNG tankers are stranded, and everybody is scrambling to make contingency plans.

But chaos creates opportunity, and shipping has always been an industry where money is made in stable markets, but even more importantly, in unstable ones. Sometimes, chaos, or even better, geographically limited chaos, can benefit shipowners.

Let’s examine what has transpired in the past few weeks:

US LNG exports are expected to increase by 30% in 2027 because of less direct competition for cargoes to Europe.

China is reselling LNG cargoes to other Asian nations.

To meet energy demand, European buyers are considering importing LNG from Canada through the Panama Canal.

Spain imported record volumes of LNG from Russia in March 2026.

With LNG carriers being attacked, the risk for seafarers has increased enormously.

This war benefits the US LNG industry. In the short term, the United States will increase production and export more cargoes to Europe if the tonnage can be secured.

But in the mid to long term, Europe and Asia will need to find alternatives to US LNG imports.

LNG producers in Canada and Australia, despite the distance that separates them from some markets, could be viable alternatives, playing crucial roles in guaranteeing energy security and diversity of supply.

But one of the key conclusions is that more LNG carriers are needed. In the short term, some LNG carriers will be stranded in the Persian Gulf, others will have to cover longer distances to meet their obligations, and others will be used as temporary storage.

Long-term, controlling shipping will become a differentiating factor and a strategic necessity for importers and exporters. It has always been important for producers, as Qatar well understood, but LNG buyers should focus more on the importance of shipping.

To adapt a famous phrase from Maryland’s former Lt Governor Michael Steele: “Build, baby, build!”