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2025 in dry bulk: balancing fragile trade and fleet expansion
Dry bulk owners navigated uneven 2025 trade, a growing orderbook and tighter expectations for safety, vetting and data integrity
The dry bulk sector in 2025 sat between stronger freight earnings and a cautious demand outlook, with market data, conference debates and owner’s decisions pointing to a year of adjustment rather than exuberance.
Maritime Strategies International (MSI)’s November HORIZON report described how “the dry bulk freight market has been unexpectedly strong in recent weeks, a sharp contrast to the first half of the year,” with Capesize earnings breaching US$30,000 per day towards the end of October and November 2025.
Behind those numbers lay a mix of trade flows that favoured longhaul cargoes and an orderbook that remained manageable at a global level, even as pressure built in some segments.
MSI highlighted the role of Guinean bauxite in that late-year strength, noting exports were up 35% year-on-year for January to August.
Chinese iron ore imports recovered after a weak first half, supported by Brazilian and Australian shipments that rose about 2% on a year-on-year basis.
Stockpiling of iron ore and bauxite in China was central to Capesize demand and to forward freight agreement sentiment, with Q2 2026 contracts climbing from about US$19,200 per day in July to US$23,700 per day in November.
MSI remained cautious on the impact of the first Simandou ore loading in November, suggesting a material disruption to trade flows would be unlikely before later in 2026.
Handymax earnings stayed resilient, supported by firm grain shipments from the Americas and what MSI described as “pockets of recent strength” in West Africa.
Nigeria’s fertiliser and cementitious exports provided a base load, while Guinean bauxite, Gabonese manganese and Liberian iron ore exports each drew Handymax tonnage, in some cases almost exclusively.
MSI warned those areas of support would need to do more work, as scheduled Handymax deliveries approach about 12M dwt in 2026.
"2025 also brought sharper focus on safety, vetting and documentation"
In the Panamax and Kamsarmax space, the MSI analysis linked Chinese soya bean import commitments to the United States with potential stockbuilding in 2025 and a risk of weaker import requirements later in 2026, a concern given the large Kamsarmax delivery profile for next year.
Elsewhere, Intermodal head of research Yiannis Parganas pointed to a 2% drop in seaborne dry bulk volumes in the first quarter of 2025 but expected full-year growth of 1.1% in tonne terms and a 0.5% contraction in tonne-miles, characterising it as a year of headwinds rather than collapse.
Kpler lead dry bulk analyst Alexis Ellender described a market where disruptions in the Red Sea and Black Sea reshaped routes and voyage lengths, but where aggregate trade growth stayed contained.
One structural theme was the impact of the electric-vehicle value chain on minor bulks. Arrow head of research Burak Cetinok noted the share of electric vehicles in global car sales climbed from less than 1% in 2016 to an expected 25% in 2025, with direct implications for aluminium, copper and battery metals.
He observed a typical European EV contains around 300 kg of aluminium and each vehicle requires close to half a tonne of bauxite, giving a clear link between automotive policy and bauxite flows.
Kpler data showed minor bulk tonne-miles rising by about 9% year-on-year, supported by bauxite, manganese ore and other minor ores.
"Freight earnings recovered from a weak first half of 2025"
Together with MSI’s West African analysis, this suggested 2025’s trade story for dry bulk was as much about minor bulk and regional exporters as about iron ore and coal.
Against this trade backdrop, fleet statistics from Clarkson Research showed dry bulkers retaining a substantial but not dominant share of the global fleet.
As of 1 November 2025, the bulker fleet stood at 8,522 vessels and 349M gt, compared with a total world fleet of 115,403 vessels and 1,727M gt.
The bulker orderbook amounted to 36M gt across 715 vessels, about 10% of the existing bulker fleet by tonnage.
MSI’s segment analysis gave further granularity: orderbooks represented 8% of the Handysize fleet, 10% of the Handymax fleet, 12% of the Panamax fleet and 10% of the Capesize fleet.
While the fleet and trade stories continued to evolve, 2025 also brought a sharper focus on safety, vetting and documentation.
At Riviera’s dry bulk safety webinar, Intercargo technical committee chair Dimitris Monioudis framed the challenge starkly, warning, “We can’t be the poor relatives” when it comes to resources and attention for dry bulk safety compared with other shipping sectors.
Speakers pointed to the Dry Bulk Management Standard as a structured reference point and stressed the need for leadership ashore that matched expectations placed on crew.
Maran Dry HSQE manager and DPA/CSO Capt Panagiotis Nikiteas highlighted the practical impact of high workloads on board and called for better alignment between commercial pressure and safety culture.
The Dry Bulk Conference in London expanded that discussion into decarbonisation and regulatory compliance.
Marine Benchmark managing director Torbjörn Rydbergh shared data showing bulk carriers had delivered material improvements in energy efficiency since 2008 through a combination of design changes and slower steaming.
Mr Rydbergh said the bulk sector was “one of the best when it comes to energy efficiency”, with CO2 per tonne-mile trending lower than in other major segments.
Overall, freight earnings recovered from a weak first half of 2025, supported by bauxite and other minor bulks, yet demand projections stayed modest.
Orderbooks were manageable at the aggregate level, though specific segments faced heavier delivery schedules.
Safety expectations, documentation requirements and decarbonisation pathways all moved further up the list of boardroom priorities.
Those interlocking themes now form the natural starting point for any assessment of how the dry bulk market may evolve through 2026.
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