US think tank warns that EU risks US LNG dependence

New analysis from IEEFA has warned that the EU’s rising reliance on US liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be creating a “high-risk geopolitical dependency”.

The think tank linked the risk to political leverage and affordability, stating that “an overreliance on US LNG, the most expensive LNG for EU buyers, contradicts the REPowerEU plan of enhancing EU energy security through diversification, demand reduction and making energy more affordable.”

While the analysis showed that the EU’s curb of natural gas imports from Russia and successful energy efficiency policy-linked cuts to gas demand have strengthened the continent’s enegy security, a failure to diversify its energy imports could result in the EU finding itself once again overleveraged to one seller.

"As part of the trade deal announced between the EU and US in July 2025, the EU intends to buy US$750Bn of US energy by 2028. The deal effectively ties the EU’s energy supply to one seller, risking energy security and jeopardising gas reduction plans," the IEEFA analysis said. 

IEEFA said if contracted US LNG volumes are delivered and demand reduction efforts falter, the bloc could source “as much as 75–80% of its LNG imports from the US in 2030, up from 57% in 2025”.

In terms of total gas imports, IEEFA calculated that the EU sourced 27% of natural gas and LNG imports from the US in 2025. The new US LNG contracts mean this figure could rise to 40% by 2030.

EU dependence, US leverage

The political sensitivity of energy dependence has come into sharper focus this month as a transatlantic dispute over Greenland has escalated in public statements and social media posts from US President Donald Trump.

Mr Trump claimed in a social media post that the US would levy a 10% tariff on goods from European countries supporting Denmark and threatened to raise the levy to 25% in June unless “a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland”.

"Starting on February 1st, 2026 ... Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, will be charged a 10% Tariff on any and all goods sent to the United States of America. On June 1st, 2026, the Tariff will be increased to 25%. This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland," the post said.

Mr Trump has announced tariffs or tariff threats on social media regularly, including recently against any country doing business with Iran. As yet, no policy details have emerged and nolegal action has been taken to formalise the recent ad hoc announcements against Iran or those opposing his desire to annex Denmark.

Mr Trump also claimed that NATO had been "telling Denmark for 20 years" to remove the Russian threat” from Greenland and that Denmark was unable to. Mr Trump added, “Now it is time, and it will be done!!!”

Mr Trump has reportedly vowed to increase tariffs on European allies further until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland.