The top five trends in marine propulsion in 2024

2023 saw its strongest year for newbuilding orders since 2015, with some 1,914 vessels contracted as of week 51, according to BRL Weekly Newbuilding Contracts.

While newbuilding contracts are expected to slacken in 2024, most vessels that are ordered will have dual-fuel propulsion as shipowners clearly see the engine technology as a ‘must have’ as opposed to a ‘nice to have’ to ensure their new tonnage can operate in the near-term on traditional fossil fuels, and sail on low- or zero-carbon fuels long term. Driving these decisions will be the implementation of the inclusion of shipping in the EU and Emissions Trading System (ETS) as of 1 January 2024 and the impending start of the FuelEU Maritime regulation in 2025.

DNV points out that a fuel technology transition is already underway in the maritime industry, with half the ordered tonnage in 2023 capable of using LNG, LPG, or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared with one third of the tonnage on order in 2022. For ships in operation, 6.5% of tonnage can now operate on alternative fuels, compared with 5.5% 2022.

While the availability, scalability, regulations and pricing of green fuels remains shrouded in mystery, owners that do not future proof their investments will risk stranded assets.

“The ordering is testimony to the efforts to tackle the reduction of carbon emissions and make a notable contribution over the next 2-3 decades in creation of cleaner air globally” commented BRL. “There will probably be a reduction in ordering in 2024 as we may see a greater downturn in global economic positions and greater wars are raising their heads plus spasmodic attacks on shipping in the Red Sea area”.

What’s your flavour?

Going hand-in-hand with this trend will be more ‘flavours’ of two- and four-stroke engine choices from engine designers that burn methanol, ammonia and hydrogen. BeHydro and Wärtsilä introduced new four-stroke, medium-speed dual-fuel engines to much fanfare in 2023.

At Europort 2023 in Rotterdam, BeHydro, a Belgian joint venture between CMB.TECH and ABC, unveiled the Evolve 6EL23 hydrogen dual-fuel marine engine, which gained an approval in principle (AiP) from Lloyd’s Register, while Finnish engine designer Wärtsilä was first to market with a four-stroke ammonia dual-fuel engine, Wärtsilä 25, reeling in a commercial contract with Viridis Bulk Carrier.

Eyeing the global stage at COP28 in Dubai, Australian mining and energy company Fortescue took the opportunity to showcase FFI Green Pioneer (ex MMA Leveque), a platform supply vessel with two engines converted to operate on ammonia. Fortescue, which is betting on green hydrogen and ammonia, purchased the vessel in March 2022 for US$7.75M.

Similar retrofit projects are being undertaken by vessel owners Fugro (methanol combustion engine conversion) and Eidesvik (ammonia fuel cell).

In the US, SWITCH Maritime’s hydrogen fuel cell-powered passenger ferry Sea Change will begin service in San Francisco starting 2024, while Amogy is leading a project to retrofit a 1957-built tugboat with its ammonia-to-power fuel cell technology as a demonstration case, targeted to be on the water in Q3 2024.

Meanwhile, two-stroke engine designers MAN Energy Solutions (MAN ES) and WinGD are both set to introduce ammonia dual-fuel engines in their portfolios over the next two years. WinGD secured an AiP from LR for its two-stroke ammonia dual-fuel engine technology in September 2023, with some of its first WinGD X52DF-A prime movers destined for a pair of ammonia carriers ordered by Exmar LPG.

Already a pioneer in both methanol and LPG two-stroke engines, MAN’s Augsburg team has partnered with Alfa Laval to develop a methanol retrofit solution for four strokes, while similarly Caterpillar has announced its Cat 3500-E can be modified to operate on the fuel, and a Cummins-led consortium is developing a kit to refit its QSK60 engine.

Let’s get digital

Environmental regulation is also driving digitalisation, with more vessel operators enhancing fleet efficiency and reporting using data-driven solutions. Charterers are also looking to gain better visibility and control over their Scope 3 emissions. Enhanced fuel monitoring, vessel optimisation and emissions monitoring systems are supporting shipowners’ efforts for compliance with IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and Energy Efficiency for Existing Ships Index (EEXI).